Abstract

Approximately half the world’s population now lives in urban areas, and about 70% will be city dwellers by 2050. The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 estimates the global energy and energy related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission contributions of cities are 67% and 71% respectively. They therefore represent a concentration of carbon dioxide-emitting activities, but equally provide substantial opportunities for effective mitigation. Although international action on climate change is essential, local mitigation will deliver many of the carbon savings, and consequently, cities will play an important role. However, closing the gap between ‘where we are now’ and ‘where we need to be’ can be problematic, given the all-encompassing nature of the problem and its cause, and the long timescales involved. Using the example of Bristol in south west England, this paper presents a methodology to overcome such a problem. By engaging local stakeholders through an innovative Delphi-like process, a number of low-carbon scenarios for the future city-region can be imagined. By subsequently using backcasting techniques, together with conventional forecasting, a robust pathway from the present to a future desirable low-emission city can be described. This will bring benefits to planning and policy making, by providing a low emission-pathway beyond the short term, and creates buy-in from key stakeholders through the Delphi-process, who have helped to define the city’s future.