Abstract

The present study estimates the costs of disasters associated with natural phenomena in the Central States of the Pacific Coast of Mexico and the impact of potential climate change in those states. The applied model explores the relation between mean temperature, precipitation and extreme natural phenomena (e.g. heavy rains, hurricanes and landslides) on the main agricultural areas of the region. While the results were expected to find negative effects from the extreme weather events, finding positive effects from parallel hurricane and hurricane in region that made landfall near the municipality (i.e. those that were not affected by extreme rainfall) finding the importance of the phenomena within the natural structure of the region’s ecosystems. Comprehensive understanding of the total effects of these events will allow us to adapt and reduce the vulnerability of agriculture and society to “ground arrival” of these natural events. The analysis is further developed to incorporate the potential impact of climatic change that can modify the intensity of the natural phenomena. In the projections of future scenarios, one of the most relevant impacts to be considered for the implementation of public policies for adapting to climate change is the amount of food lost due to the occurrence of extreme weather events. The loss of crops for a region may represent a reduction in commercial and economic activities, and implies that large groups of small farmers [will] lose a source of revenue and subsistence foods for a complete agricultural season. Thus, to create food security policies for these regions should be part of the agenda of measures for adapting to climate change. This study provides preliminary guidelines for the development of broader and in-depth research, which could lead to mitigation actions that will allow society to adapt to the unavoidable consequences of these changes.