Abstract

Abstract: Global warming has triggered global climate change, which is characterized by changes in the pattern and intensity of climate elements. Demak, as a coastal area of Indonesia, is disaster-prone due to climate change. This study aimed to identify the climate change in Demak based on the temperature parameters of the data period 1970–2017, climate projections for 2021–2050, and the potential threats that this area faces. The air temperature data were analyzed by the data distribution test, linear regression test, Mann–Kendal test, and descriptive analysis. The projection data were subjected to distribution test analysis, correlation test, linear regression test, Mann–Kendal test, and descriptive analysis. Then, the general circulation model (GCM) with RCP 8.5 scenario was used to analyze the changes compared with the observation climate. Demak was identified to experience changes in the air temperature in 1970–2017 with an increase of 0.02 °C/year, especially in February. The climate projection with RCP 8.5 scenario utilized five GCMs outputs, showing that the current temperature trends will continue to rise with an average increase of 0.037 °C/year or increase by 1.11 °C in 2050, with a 95 percent chance of increase of extreme events in the “moderate” category and 99 percent in “mild” category.