Evaluating and Forecasting Future Energy Consumption Patterns ...

S09 2

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Abstract

In different parts of the world, tourism is a major component of the economy at the local, regional and national level. Tourism is a booming industry worldwide and Mauritius is no exception. With globalization and the increasing environment consciousness of its clientele, the tourism industry needs to adapt to an increasingly competitive environment whilst maintaining the attractiveness of their offers. Sustainable Tourism Development has thus become a much debated issue especially for Small Island Developing States like Mauritius. The island has no natural fossil fuel resources and the number of tourists is increasing in line with its development objectives. Therefore Mauritius needs to plan its energy use for the sector in a sustainable manner. Accurate energy forecasts are critical to this process. This paper focuses on the forecast of net energy consumption of the tourism sector up to year 2018 using multiple regression. Data available for 98 hotels was consolidated with a detailed survey of a sample of 32 hotels. The data was used to forecast ten years ahead and recommendations to sustain such increases in demand are discussed further.