Abstract

An increase in sea surface temperature (SST) and variations in ocean currents are changes attributed to climate change that will impact the physical and biological health of the oceans to varying degrees, causing effects on the distribution, abundance, and consequently, availability of fishing resources. However, these changes will not be uniform throughout the world because some regions are warming faster than others. In this study, we identified the effects of increasing SST due to climate change on dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus L.) potential fishing zones (PFZ). Two Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to describe three representative concentration pathways (RCP) (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Results indicate that the SST of the Colombian Pacific will increase in temperature between 1°C and 3°C. A decrease in the abundance of dolphinfish (catch per unit of effort [CPUE]) and changes in their spatial distribution were observed, suggesting that this species is sensitive to temperature change. Future predictions for dolphinfish PFZ showed a proportional reduction during representative seasonal periods for dolphinfish (November–March) of 2020, 2040, and 2100, with RCP 8.5 being the most affected. Therefore, the study of future Spatio-temporal patterns and the trajectories of potential fishing areas could provide information about the availability of resources for this fishery and the subsequent evaluation of management options in climate change scenarios.