Abstract

A 720 km coastal belt of Maharashtra State in India comes under heavy rainfall and faces the problem of sea water intrusion. Excessive salinity of soils in Kharland (coastal saline land) has affected the fertile agricultural land of 65,465 ha. In this region the changes in salinity levels of soil and water are drastic during the dry spells. Dry spells play a very critical role in planning of agricultural practices as this is a rainfed region. A dry spell study calls for analysis of the past data of the region on daily, weekly, monthly and annual basis. Considering soil-crop-climate complex of the Kharland region the critical dry spells were estimated from the dry spell durations. The probabilities of the dry spell durations for 4 to 14 days were estimated with the Gumbel’s extreme value distribution. For the better planning of the Kharland, the emphasis was given on pentad analysis. Markov Chain Model was used to know the probability of sequences of the pentads. The 33rd pentad was most suitable for sowing operation of transplanted paddy by transplanting and awatani method. The 37th pentad was most favorable for transplanting operation after leaching out salts from top layer. Also, the 37th and 38th pentads were most favorable for skilful broadcasting method of rohu. The results were used for planning of the Kharland agriculture for sustainable and productive farming with less risk involved.