Planning and Analysis
Climate Change and Variability and Their Effects on Water Quantity in the Mount Kenya Water Tower View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Catherine Sang
Mount Kenya is critical in the hydrological system of Kenya being the origin of two main rivers; Tana and Ewaso Ng’iro but is being threatened by climate change (CC) that is decreasing rainfall amounts and, coupled with environmental change, is altering the river flow regimes. The purpose of this research was to analyse rainfall and temperature changes due to CC and their effects on water quantity in Mount Kenya’s water tower. GPCC rainfall and ERA5 temperature data were used for historical climate analysis. CORDEX data were used for climate projections. Three climate periods were considered: 1991-2020 (baseline); 2021-2050 (near-future) and 2051-2070 (distant-future). Man-Kendall trend tests, Gaussian PDF, among other statistics were used to analyse climate and hydrological data. Land Use/Cover (LULC) changes were analysed using Landsat images in ArcGIS software. Regression and correlation analyses were used to establish the relationships between climate, LULC and Streamflow, while the WEAP model was used to simulate the impacts of climate and LULC changes on water quantity. The results provide clear evidence of climate change in terms of increasing temperature trends and decreasing rainfall and streamflow trends, reflecting a decline in water quantity. Forest cover and glaciers have also declined. This may lead to water and food insecurity, and loss of livelihoods in the two river basins. The research outcomes enhance understanding of the adverse impacts of CC on water and contribute evidence-based information that can be used for sustainable water management, decision-making, and adaptation under CC for the Mount Kenya region and beyond.
Featured Entity-level Greenhouse Gas Inventory: A Road to Emission Reduction and Climate Change Mitigation in the Municipality of Victoria, Oriental Mindoro View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Wilma B. Cledera- De Los Santos
The increase in temperature due to the enhanced greenhouse effect has been the dominant cause of observed global warming and climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the culprit of said global warming, (IPCC. 2014). Estimating the GHG emission is the first step towards mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and attaining carbon neutrality in the country. Section 14 of the Philippine Climate Change Act (PCCA) requires the LGUs to formulate, plan and implement a Local Climate Change Action Plan (LCCAP). GHG inventory is an essential component of this plan. As a response to the PCCA, a quantification of an entity-level GHG emission at the local government unit (LGU) of Victoria has been conducted. The study utilized the prescribed Philippine Climate Change Commission methodology on GHG inventory for LGUs. The LGU has a total GHG emission of 700.19 t CO2e, with 2022 as the base year. The total direct emission from mobile and stationary combustion is 429.92 CO2e while their solid waste emission is 149.73 CO2e. On the other hand, the total indirect emission from purchased electricity is 120.54 CO2e. Results show that the largest emission of the municipality came from mobile and stationary combustion accounting for 61.4% of the total emission. The result will serve as the baseline data of the LGU in the annual quantification through which they could comprehend and compare. This supports better planning for mitigation options that the LGUs can implement. Specific mitigation measures are recommended.
Advancing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis: A Comprehensive Application for Streamlined Optimization within Oil and Gas Operations View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Ali Nassereddine
Amidst the pressing global climate challenges, the oil and gas industry faces an imperative need for innovative solutions prioritizing environmental responsibility and operational efficiency. The GHG emissions analysis tool is a web application enabled by steady-state multiphase flow simulator where a wide range of parameters, such as differential pressure, efficiency, flowline length, flowline inner diameter, and drag reducing agent (DRA) concentrations can be accommodated by this solution, designed matrix of scenarios simultaneously. This analysis tool proved its ability to fine-tune setups through testing and iterative simulations, producing noticeable emissions reductions and considering that, two thorough case studies strengthened our understanding of the tool's capabilities. The first case study examined the effects of targeted DRA injection at the surface level. Results indicated that using precise DRA injection techniques could increase operational throughput while potentially reducing emissions by 10%. The subsequent case study focused on gas lift optimization, including surface and subsurface dynamics. The analysis revealed that optimized gas lift techniques can reduce pressure requirements by up to 15%, resulting in considerable operational efficiency savings and an additional 23% decrease in emissions through better field planning and engineering design. The implications of case studies’ results extend this application beyond its immediate technological developments. The outcomes of our study offer a comprehensive guide for oil and gas industries battling with the interconnected challenges of sustainability and economic feasibility. Beyond facilitating the industry's transition towards sustainable energy, the methodologies and strategies presented here underscore the industry's capacity to spearhead the battle against climate change.
Impact of Urban Heat Island on Toronto's Climate and Energy Consumption: Historical Analysis and Future Projections View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Tanzina Mohsin, Charlotte Wargniez
Urban energy systems, crucial for the functioning of cities, can either propel or impede the vitality and future prospects of urban areas. The heterogeneous landscape of cities plays a significant role in driving climate change, with various energy sources like natural gas, coal, biomass, and nuclear power contributing to global climate shifts. Conversely, the urban heat island (UHI) effect, a local climate change phenomenon in cities, can exert considerable stress on local energy systems. Given the intricate nature of climate change-driven energy demand in urban areas, this study aims to investigate the effects of UHI and climate change on energy demand in Toronto, compared to surrounding rural regions in Southern Ontario, Canada. Climate change indices related to temperature, including Heating Degree Days (HDD), Cooling Degree Days (CDD), and Hot Days (HD), are analyzed using data from 1961-1990, serving as a baseline for forecasting future changes in these indices and their impact on energy demand in Toronto. The occurrence of UHI days (>4°C) is examined alongside energy demand in Toronto, compared to nearby rural areas, during the historical period. The analysis reveals a strong correlation between energy demand in Toronto and CDD and Monthly Daytime UHI, while rural energy demand is primarily driven by winter heating (HDD). Projections until 2100 under various Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios indicate an increase in energy demand in Toronto, with a potential decrease in rural regions. The study also discusses mitigation prospects and strategies, emphasizing the significant influence of mitigation measures on urban energy demands.
Measuring Psychological Responses to Climate Change: Minding the Limits of Concepts and Methods, the Example of Psychological Coping and Defense View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Jennifer Persmann
Climate psychology research investigates the intersection of the transformations in technological and behavioural practices, and of social, political, and economic systems required to mitigate and to adapt to global warming. It also attends to the assessment and treatment of mental health impacts related to experience of climate change. As such, climate psychology research has interdisciplinary relevance, objectives, and implications. The variation in research aims and methods mobilized to study this interdisciplinarity poses challenges to the integration and communication of results. Attempts to universalize the evidence base have often led to the prioritization of positivist methodologies. However, there are limits to what can be quantified, and limitations to what quantification alone can reveal. Other approaches may permit the exploration of concepts, correlations, and dynamics essential to the formulation of innovative research questions, designs, experimentation, and productive communication across disciplines. This paper argues for a universalization of the climate psychology evidence base through the application of methodological interdisciplinarity to research efforts by prioritizing conceptual clarity and precision in research design, measurement, and communication rather than attempting to standardize methodology. This permits an accurate appraisal of findings within epistemological and methodological paradigms, and the situation of climate change as a whole. Using the example of recent empirical findings about effects of psychological defenses on individuals thinking about their mitigation and adaptation behaviours, this paper demonstrates how the rigorous contextualization of research questions, methods and results permits the generation and interpretation of data within a universal but methodologically heterogeneous evidence base.
