Abstract
Mount Kenya is critical in the hydrological system of Kenya being the origin of two main rivers; Tana and Ewaso Ng’iro but is being threatened by climate change (CC) that is decreasing rainfall amounts and, coupled with environmental change, is altering the river flow regimes. The purpose of this research was to analyse rainfall and temperature changes due to CC and their effects on water quantity in Mount Kenya’s water tower. GPCC rainfall and ERA5 temperature data were used for historical climate analysis. CORDEX data were used for climate projections. Three climate periods were considered: 1991-2020 (baseline); 2021-2050 (near-future) and 2051-2070 (distant-future). Man-Kendall trend tests, Gaussian PDF, among other statistics were used to analyse climate and hydrological data. Land Use/Cover (LULC) changes were analysed using Landsat images in ArcGIS software. Regression and correlation analyses were used to establish the relationships between climate, LULC and Streamflow, while the WEAP model was used to simulate the impacts of climate and LULC changes on water quantity. The results provide clear evidence of climate change in terms of increasing temperature trends and decreasing rainfall and streamflow trends, reflecting a decline in water quantity. Forest cover and glaciers have also declined. This may lead to water and food insecurity, and loss of livelihoods in the two river basins. The research outcomes enhance understanding of the adverse impacts of CC on water and contribute evidence-based information that can be used for sustainable water management, decision-making, and adaptation under CC for the Mount Kenya region and beyond.
Presenters
Catherine SangLecturer, Department of Environmental Monitoring, Planning and Management, University of Eldoret, Kenya
Details
Presentation Type
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session
Theme
Assessing Impacts in Diverse Ecosystems
KEYWORDS
Climate change impacts, Water security, Land use land cover, Streamflow, Temperature, Rainfall
