Sixteenth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

Urban energy systems, crucial for the functioning of cities, can either propel or impede the vitality and future prospects of urban areas. The heterogeneous landscape of cities plays a significant role in driving climate change, with various energy sources like natural gas, coal, biomass, and nuclear power contributing to global climate shifts. Conversely, the urban heat island (UHI) effect, a local climate change phenomenon in cities, can exert considerable stress on local energy systems. Given the intricate nature of climate change-driven energy demand in urban areas, this study aims to investigate the effects of UHI and climate change on energy demand in Toronto, compared to surrounding rural regions in Southern Ontario, Canada. Climate change indices related to temperature, including Heating Degree Days (HDD), Cooling Degree Days (CDD), and Hot Days (HD), are analyzed using data from 1961-1990, serving as a baseline for forecasting future changes in these indices and their impact on energy demand in Toronto. The occurrence of UHI days (>4°C) is examined alongside energy demand in Toronto, compared to nearby rural areas, during the historical period. The analysis reveals a strong correlation between energy demand in Toronto and CDD and Monthly Daytime UHI, while rural energy demand is primarily driven by winter heating (HDD). Projections until 2100 under various Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios indicate an increase in energy demand in Toronto, with a potential decrease in rural regions. The study also discusses mitigation prospects and strategies, emphasizing the significant influence of mitigation measures on urban energy demands.