Posters (Asynchronous Session)
Youth Political Engagement and the Climate Crisis
Poster Session Derick Hulme
Transforming the “Greta Thunberg moment” into enduring youth political engagement may be the linchpin upon which twenty-first century success in combatting climate change depends. Pursued collaboratively by Alma College, the Shiv Nadar Foundation, and the United Nations Information Center for India and Bhutan, a climate themed experiential learning initiative for thousands of Delhi area students grades 7-12 was launched in 2013 with the express goal of engaging young Indian students with the existential issue of our time. Benefitting from a close teaching/mentoring relationship, Alma College and Shiv Nadar School students spend seven weeks annually examining various facets of the climate crisis, including water scarcity, forced migration, and conflict, with the goal of developing solutions at a school level Model UN conference. The results have been impressive, with students organizing climate oriented clubs and events, faculty and administrators incorporating climate change material throughout the curriculum, and the Shiv Nadar Foundation sponsoring the first all-India, climate change focused, Model UN conference in 2020. This poster highlights the importance of transnational, multi-stakeholder, collaborative efforts to provide youth with avenues by which they can both learn about climate change and, most importantly, develop a sense of political efficacy that will inform their adult political engagement.
Hurricanes and Residential Mortgage Performance View Digital Media
Poster Session Xiaobing Zhao
Hurricanes are growing more destructive as a result of rising global temperatures. In some cases hurricanes cause over $100 billion in damage to property and output. In literature, it is difficult to identify the impact of hurricanes on other aspects such as mortgage defaults and losses as disaster assistance and insurance tend to offset hurricane losses. Moody’s Analytics (2017) estimates that the economic aid associated with Hurricane Katrina was $185.7 billion, with $50 billion in insurance and $135.7 billion in government aid, more than the loss of $174.5 billion. Consistently, previous studies find that Hurricane Katrina had little impact on mortgage defaults and foreclosures. This study attempts to fill this research gap by focusing on two hurricanes, Harvey and Maria, in 2017, as the variation in government aid offers a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of hurricanes on mortgage performance. While the government aid amounted to $13 billion for Hurricane Harvey 180 days after landfall, it was only about $2.4 billion for Hurricane Maria, despite that their overall damage estimates are close (Willison et al., 2019). We utilize the historical loan-level data from two government-sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and a differencing-in-differences identification strategy. Our control group consists of loans from areas in LA and TX that are not affected by disasters. The main finding is, Hurricane Maria caused the 180 or more days delinquency rate and the loss given default in Puerto Rico to increase by about 80% and 30% two years after the hurricane, respectively.
Development of Remote Sensing-based Yield Prediction Models at the Maturity Stage of Boro Rice Using Parametric and Nonparametric Approaches: Vegetation Phenology Indices View Digital Media
Poster Session Md Monirul Islam
This research explores rice yield prediction models using satellite remote sensing-based vegetation indices at the optimum harvesting time before flash flooding. Five relevant vegetation indices (VIs) were used to develop several empirical yield prediction models for rice production. From multiple regression analysis, it was observed that the datasets derived from the satellite imagery in the form of either spectral bands (Red, NIR, SWIR, Blue) or vegetation indices (NDVI, RGVI, and MSI) were the most effective parameters for the rice yield prediction models. The generated models were validated using both parametric (simple and multiple) and nonparametric (artificial neural network, ANN) regression analyses. The crop yield models developed using regression analysis showed very significant agreement with ground reference yield information. The best estimated performances for the RGVI (R^2 = 0.44), NDVI 〖(R〗^2=0.63), NDVI (R^2 = 0.55), and NDVI (R^2 = 0.67) in the simple regression analysis were observed for 2017, 2018, and 2019 and the average seasons during 2017-2019, respectively. On the other hand, the composite NDVI-RGVI 〖(R〗^2 = 0.49), NDVI-NDWI 〖(R〗^2 = 0.65), NDVI-NDWI 〖(R〗^2 = 0.56), and NDVI-MSI 〖(R〗^2 =0.69) indices were the best-performing vegetation indices in developing boro rice yield prediction models using multiple regression. Nevertheless, in the ANN-based machine-learning results, NDVI had a higher accuracy for the average boro rice season (2017-2019) using a simple regression approach (R2 = 0.84) and (R2 = 0.91) for the multiple regression analysis of the average NDVI-MSI composite index.
Lag Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity of the Changing Climate on Allergenic Pollen Seasons in Atlanta, Georgia (2010-2019) View Digital Media
Poster Session Ferdous Ahmed, Atin Adhikari
Increased temperature due to climate change can contribute to longer pollen seasons, more pollen production, and increased pollen allergenicity. Simultaneously, dry conditions [low relative humidity (RH)] of the climate coupled with increased temperature favor pollen maturation, loosening from flower anthers, and subsequent dispersals. These effects may not be immediate and can be delayed for days to weeks. These lags, which are important in determining pollen seasonality and related public health problems, are relatively under-explored and addressed in this study. The relationships between daily airborne concentrations of trees, grasses, and weed pollen and atmospheric temperature and RH from 2010 to 2019 were analyzed. Pollen loads were stratified across low to extremely high categories. Time-series analysis methods were used to see the relationships between airborne pollen loads with observed temperature and humidity patterns overtime after checking autocorrelations in datasets. The initial analyses of trends showed a significantly increased total airborne pollen loads over time. Long term data indicate significantly increased trees pollen and significantly decreased in both grass and weed pollen. The trend analysis showed that March's temperature was significantly correlated with total pollen counts in March/April. Preliminary data analyses indicate that atmospheric temperature changed in the Greater Atlanta area could be a significant contributor for allergenic pollen season changes, which might be an important determinant of pollen allergy across long periods in this area.
US President Joe Biden's Administration: A New Climate Change Agenda View Digital Media
Poster Session Majid Asadnabizadeh
Since the presidential campaign, then US President-Elect Joe Biden pledged to create new climate change initiatives and undo former President Trump's climate actions. The climate change issue is a key principle for Mr. Joe Biden under the new US administration. This study assesses and identifies elements to achieve a new climate agenda, including national and international elements. The research puts forward two reasons, the Economic-based approach and the Individual approach, why climate change is one of the important issues in the new administration, which has been collected by the relevant literature. In addition, two specific approaches are identified at the International level: global leadership on climate change, global cooperation on the climate change. The author argues that Biden's administration combines several approaches to address the climate change issue. In short, in the new administration, the national level and its elements have a significant role to play in a new U.S. climate change agenda to make progress on climate change issues.
What Can Salt Marsh Subsidence in a Tidally-restricted Estuary Reveal about Sea Level Rise?: Cape Cod's Herring River Estuary Constitutes a Century-long Experiment Eliminating Tidal Exchange from Coastal Salt Marshes View Digital Media
Poster Session Evan Heberlein
The outlet of Cape Cod's Herring River has been restricted through the Chequessett Neck Road dike for roughly a century, and the salt marshes which make up the river’s estuary were extensively drained for mosquito control and land reclamation. These two manipulations have dramatically altered the basic functions of this ecosystem. The removal of tidal exchange and the atmospheric oxidation of sedimentary compounds in the Herring River Estuary (HRE) have caused up to one meter of subsidence in marshes upstream of the dike. Beyond the biochemical and ecological impacts of this long-standing intervention, the coastal engineering considerations necessary to restore this marsh present a case-study in sea level rise adaptation. In small watersheds like the Herring River, an unimpeded connection to the ocean is essential to deposit organic material and sediment onto salt marshes at high tide. Diking also decreases tide heights, causing marsh sediments to dry and pore spaces to collapse. The National Park Service's restoration plan for the HRE involves the installation of a flood-control structure under an existing road to gradually raise the water level in the estuary and re-accrete its subsided marshes. This restoration project presents a microcosm of the challenges facing coastal wetland managers around the world – if sea level rises faster than coastal wetlands are able to accrete, these ecosystems will be lost along with the coastal resilience and carbon sequestration benefits they provide. This poster includes a cross-section of the dike's impact and discusses multiple potential benefits of marsh restoration.
Potential Adaptation Response Strategies to Climate Change in Small Scale Fisheries along the Colombian Pacific View Digital Media
Poster Session John Josephraj Selvaraj, Maira Alejandra Miranda Parra, Maria Alejandra Cifuentes Ossa
The direct and indirect impacts of climate change include the potential change in the distribution and productivity of target species populations, habitat, and food webs, as well as effects on the costs and productivity of fisheries and aquaculture, thereby impacting the livelihoods and security of the fishing community that depends on them. On the Pacific coast of Colombia, Tumaco is a vital fishing port located in the Pacific sub-region of Nariño. Small scale fishing has been a primary producer and subsistence activity for more than 5,000 families. Implementing adaptation strategies for the local fishing community's fishing activity is an imminent need in this context. We identified possible climate change adaptation responses that best fit the local fishing community's needs using a statistical multicriteria analysis model that included an expert assessment analysis and the CLIMate ACTions Prioritization (CLIMACT PRIO). Strategies were categorized into high, medium, and low categories and prioritized by a series of feasibility criteria, including potential stakeholder acceptance, technical and financial feasibility, guarantees for implementation, the potential for integration with local government planning, projected effectiveness, and sectoral impact. The final scoring of the strategies made it evident to prioritize programs or projects that aim to disseminate oceanographic datasets directly in fishing communities to support and encourage informed decision-making and identify areas suitable for marine aquaculture as potential strategies for adapting local fishing communities to climate change in the context of the Colombian Nariño Pacific sub-region.
