Conference Closing Reception and Poster Session
Common Ground Research Networks and the International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses will be hosting a closing reception and poster session at the University Ca' Foscari's Scientific Campus of Mestre, Venice, Italy. This will be held directly following the Conference Closing Session and Award Ceremony on the last day of the conference, Friday, 17 April. Join other conference delegates and plenary speakers for the poster session while enjoying drinks, light hors d'oeuvres, and a chance to converse.
Climatic Scenarios at the Local Level and Analysis of Crop Water Requirements
Poster Session Jesús Efren Ospina Noreña, Marion Ospina Buitrago
This study evaluated current and future water requirements in cocoa, citrus and mango crops in Nilo (Cundinamarca-Colombia), to provide guidelines and adaptation measures in the evaluated region. A baseline and 11 future climate models were used, considering greenhouse gas scenarios defined as representative concentration pathways or RCP's 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 by 2070, with the previous scenarios (44 in total), a single weighted average scenario was proposed, on which the analysis of water requirements and irrigation need for each crop was performed. Results show an increase in the average annual temperature of 2.7 °C in the weighted average, by the year 2070 in relation to the current value 26.5 ° C. Effective annual rainfall decreased 20.9% from 1023.8 to 810 mm, while ETo increased from 1338.4 to 1401.6 mm. Water requirements for cocoa will go from current 1099 mm to 1158.8 mm in the future scenario, for citrus will go from 792.4 to 830.5 mm and for mango from 1219.6 to 1276.9 mm, causing an increase in irrigation of 56% (332.8 to 519.3 mm), 68.7% (108.6 to 183.2 mm) and 71.1% (281.2 to 481.1 mm) for cocoa, citrus and mango, respectively. Some adaptation guidelines are 1) to promote the cultivation of citrus fruits, which is the one that needs the least irrigation according to the climatic conditions of the region, 2) study the viability of rainwater harvesting, 3) design adequate irrigation infrastructure for efficient use of water and 4) explore different sowing dates, among others.
Agriculture Climate Change Coping Mechanism Nexus for Flash Floods : A Geo-Econometric Approach
Poster Session Md Monirul Islam, Tofael Ahamed
In the present years, the north-eastern region of Bangladesh experiences flash flooding during the per-harvesting period of the Boro rice crop frequently due to the adverse consequences of global climate change. In this study, our overall goal was to identify the most vulnerable flash-flood affected areas considering vegetation penology indices by using GIS and remote sensing and to develop some possible agricultural insurance model based on an area yield and community participation for exploring the pathways of further research. We evaluated the freely available Landsat-8 OLI images in the form of NDWI at 30 m spatial resolution freely available from USGS websites over the Haor area between January 2016 and June 2017 using ArcGIS 10.3® software. Our results showed that in 2017 flash flood adversely affects the vegetative reproduction of Boro rice in the study areas than the year before flash flood in 2016. From inundation analysis, it was found that the majority of the study areas are in moderately damaged category whereas only Tahirpur sub-district had a high damaged extent. Analysed climate data from two stations also indicated that fluctuated monthly maximum and minimum temperature and changing precipitation level has a strong relationship for the occurrence of a flash flood event. IPCC climate projected data both temperature and precipitation also indicated a negative future is waiting in the upcoming days. Therefore, the proposed insurance premium model would be an effective and fruitful option to combat this adverse situation for the most vulnerable people in haor areas.
How a Coastal College in Florida Plans to Incorporate Sea Level Rise into Campus Development
Poster Session Jerry Sparkman, Evan Bollier, Donald Eastman
Eckerd College is a national private liberal arts higher education institution located in St. Petersburg, Florida, on the Gulf of Mexico. The 188 acres of the campus is on average 4 feet above sea level and has approximately 1.30 miles of coastline. With over 90% of the nearly 2000 undergraduate students living on the campus, and major academic programs focused on marine sciences and coastal ecology, relocating to higher ground due to sea level rise is not an option. Eckerd's master plan for the campus is to accommodate sea level rise in a thoughtful, slow, and pragmatic way over the course of time to become a demonstration site for higher education sustainability. As the institution grows and develops, buildings will be renovated with more levels, walkways will be elevated, retention ponds will be expanded, landscaping will be more natural and absorbent, and parking lots will transition to permeable surfaces. Eckerd College is taking steps to incorporate sea level rise into its environmentally cognizant plan to ensure it will be around in perpetuity.
Net Income Variation and Climate Change Impact on Potato Production in Bangladesh
Poster Session Jasim Uddin Ahmed, Md. shah Alamgir
At present potato consumption in developing countries is increasing day by day as it’s the best alternative by providing the same nutrition as rice. Farmers of Bangladesh are producing about 10216 thousand metric tons of potato from 1235 thousand acres of land to earn more profit than rice. However, in recent years, this crop production is severely affected by the variability of climatic factors. Farmers also faced the problem of price fluctuation in harvesting season due to bumper production and lack of proper storage system. Considering these situations the present research was undertaken to examine the extent of cost and net income variation for potato and to check the impact of climate change on potato production in the North Eastern part of Bangladesh. To grasp the diversity of income due to climate change, this study decomposed the variance of net income into different factors. The study results showed that climatic variation influenced potato production and pushed the price to fluctuate in the harvesting season. Gross income difference also existed among the farmers due to fertilizer and seed cost variation. Considerable part (73%) of net income variation was explained by gross income. It implied that "potato yield" or "potato price (quality)" or both vary widely among farmers. The study will help to make a linkage between the farm income and the potential impact of climate change on potato production. Therefore, understanding the causes of cost and income variation would be an effective and fruitful strategy to support the potato farmers.
Effects of Global Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the Colombian Pacific Ocean
Poster Session Karold Viviana Coronado-Franco, John Josephraj Selvaraj
The spatial distribution of marine resources along the Colombian pacific coast is expected to shift due to global climate change, which is an important regional issue. Understanding the most likely future locations of the yellowfin tuna (YFT) species will help sustainable harvest and management. We estimated potential current and future distribution using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) based on species presence data and environmental variables (temperature, salinity, chlorophyll, dissolved oxygen, SSH, nitrates, phosphates, and currents). Future distributions of YFT in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s were modeled using temperature, salinity and currents projected under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios for four ensembled global circulation models (GCM) (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, CNRM-CM5) obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Pixel-wise change was calculated to identify areas of contraction and expansion, and the distribution core shift was determined to estimate the spatial movements. The results suggest that in the future, the YFT distribution area expansion at the depths between 0 and 27m and distribution contraction at deeper water indicating a vertical upward movement. The centroid of the current distribution is located between 5 °N and 78.5 °W. The distribution core shift for the short, medium, and long-term in the three RCP scenarios showed a northwestern shift indicating that the YFT could move away from the Colombian Pacific coast. A shift in the spatial and temporal distribution of this species may require a socioeconomic adjustment in the fishing industry.
What We See When the Snow Melts: Exploring the Effects on Climate Change on Indigenous Communities in Northern Sweden
Online Poster Audrey Reinert
The purpose of this poster is to outline the development an augmented reality (AR) application for use in museums and cultural heritage centers that explains the impact climate change has on indigenous communities in Northern Finland, Sweden, and Norway. Indigenous and minority groups frequently lack the social, political and financial resources necessary to mitigate the effects of climate change. Further, many indigenous populations are dependent upon the harvesting or use of natural resources for their livelihoods. Disruptions in the environment caused by climate change have a significant impact on traditional ways of life and community health. Placing indigenous individuals at the center the experience provides the opportunity for direct interaction. This is important because indigenous individuals may rarely come into contact with members of the majority group. Further, treating the experiences of indigenous women as the focal point of the narrative centers the discussion on less visible, but equally consequential effects of climate change. Three themes will be discussed: Augmented Reality in Museum Contexts, Indigenous narratives and Augmented Climate. The first section will focus on how to design accessible, engaging and impactful augmented reality interactions. The narratives surrounding the experiences of indigenous groups are often actively and passively distorted by members of a dominant cultural group. This often manifests in the mythologization of the dominant group’s historical narratives. The final section will focus on how to portray the effects of climate change on indigenous communities. Specific topics will include maternal health, water and wildlife, and disease.
The Impact of Climate Shocks on Social Networks: Understanding Sensitivity and Adaptation among Rural Indian Communities
Online Lightning Talk Richard Ramsawak
This paper examines the relationship between climate shocks and investments in social network relationships. I leverage fluctuating long run precipitation patterns across districts in India, to estimate household adaptive choices in terms of investments in social network relationships. I also leverage the frequency of climate shocks to estimate the impact of repeated negative climate events on social network relationships. I find that households that experience higher average negative precipitation shocks tend to invest more in family-caste (formal and informal) and vertical network relationships. These network relationships were also found to be associated with greater access to financial credit, higher reported collaboration, and greater use of private irrigation technologies, all of which are key to mitigating the negative impacts of climate shocks. Interestingly, villages with higher levels of average income, and households which were reported to be landowners were found to have higher investments in linked networks relative to other members of the sample. This suggests that wealth rather than caste status would be key for a household’s ability to access linked networks. Households that reside in locations which face repeated negative climate shocks tend to have lower investments in non-family-based or bridging networks such as in business associations, NGOs and self-help groups, which suggests that such networks are more vulnerable to repeated climate shocks.
The Use of a Computer Program for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Context of Climate Change
Poster Session Wioletta Wnuk, Bożena Nowakowicz Dębek
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report, animal husbandry and related production departments together produce around 18% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. GHG emissions control in the agricultural and food sectors should be considered as an important instrument to support environmental management to mitigate the effects of climate change. In the context of the global increase in food demand, emission reduction efforts must focus on all links in the food production chain, especially animal production. Therefore, there is a need for accurate identification of emission sources and dissemination of agricultural practices that would contribute to reducing emissions in all production cells. A detailed quantitative assessment of GHG emissions is needed to conduct objective comparisons and select the best technological solutions according to the emissivity criterion. For this purpose, a computer program was used with the possibility of modeling gaseous emissions of pollutants in farms. Modeling emissions using this program may be necessary to prepare reports on the impact of investments on the environment, or collect fees for using the environment. The described method of forecasting GHG emissions from a farm is an easy way to determine the environmental load. The use of emission factors gives a quick answer about the size of the farm's emissions, indicates the legitimacy of using pollution neutralization methods to counteract climate change.
The Reduction of Ammonia Emission from Agricultural Sources using Natural Sorbents
Poster Session Mateusz Ossowski, Łukasz Wlazło
Ammonia as a greenhouse gas contributes to global climate change, and degradation of natural terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, as it returns with precipitation to the earth's surface. Seventy-five percent of land-based emissions are attributed to agriculture. In 2010, the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) recognized large-scale farms as point sources of agricultural pollution (Baltic Agricultural Hot Spots). This approach made it impossible to exactly define the proper problem in terms of environmental protection and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural sources. The purpose of this research was to assess the possibility of using a mixture of natural sorbents in pig nutrition in reducing the emission of ammonia and other greenhouse gases from agricultural sources. For this purpose, two groups of animals were created, 240 pieces each. The control group consisted of traditionally fed animals, while in the experimental group the animals were additionally treated with a mixture of natural sorbents in the amount of 1.5% of the daily dose of feed. At the same time, monitoring was carried out of the amount of ammonia released, and other gases using an installed measuring network. The experiment confirmed the strong binding capacity and ammonia, and reduction of gaseous pollutant emissions from the farm to the environment. The reduction of released gas was at the level of 15-20%. In the context of the presented research, natural sorbents should be used in technological processes that require reducing the emission of volatile pollutants into the atmospheric air.
Multi-factorial Drivers of Fodder Crises in Ireland and Risks Due to Climate Change
Poster Session Cathal Nolan
Ireland remains a relatively agrarian economy by European standards; however, the financial viability of agricultural activities such as the beef and dairy sectors depends upon the provision of quality and affordable fodder through productive grassland management. Anthropogenic climate change threatens to undermine Irish agriculture by causing an increase in the occurrence of significant fodder shortages by the mid-century, thereby rendering Ireland's beef and dairy sectors economically nonviable. Having developed a chronological record of the severity of past fodder crisis for a period of over 250 years, our research has identified the occurrence of ninety individual events, with just over thirty being considered severe events. Three of the most severe fodder shortages have occurred during the past decade, both of which have been attributed to climate change. Through the incorporation of regional grass growth models and regional climate models, our research reached an early conclusion that future anthropogenic climate change will lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of fodder crisis, not just on a national scale, but on a continental scale, providing a considerable challenge to the agricultural industry, but also to national governments and the European Union as a whole.
Lessons Learnt from the Kerala Floods of 2018: The Role of Institutional Friction in Delayed and Maladapted Disaster Management in a Developing Country
Online Lightning Talk Malini Nair
The Kerala floods of 2018 were disproportionate in their magnitude and affected areas, causing a death of over 500 people, movement of over one million to relief camps, and estimated damage of $2.7 billion. Although increased numbers of extreme rainfall events were recorded in the state during June-August 2018, the vulnerability of the population was significantly increased due to heavy construction in low lying areas, as well as catchment areas of dams. The inappropriate management of dams was a contributing factor to the overflowing of multiple rivers. As Kerala obtains a majority of its energy from monsoon-dependent hydel power, the management of dams has been directed towards maximising energy production. Further, implementation of expert advice on ecological protection, e.g.,Western Ghats Ecology Panel was subsumed by political realities.The recently published IPCC report AR5 suggests that an increase in extreme rainfall events is predicted over much of the Indian Subcontinent, in the short-term. This can create even more riskier scenarios for Kerala. Thus the objectives of this analysis were to indicate risks that were considered/not considered by federal, state, and local government. An accounting for the role of institutional friction that escalated the scale of the disaster was conducted. Due to advanced socio-political awareness, there were some unexpected wins in case of disaster relief. However, we found that there was repeat of previous years’ disaster in the 2019 monsoon season, as there was a delay in relief implementation. Thus, a directional analysis of implementation of adaptation interventions in developing countries was conducted.
A Systematic Review of Lagged Association in Environmental Studies
Poster Session Pin Wang
The delayed association in environment-health studies has been acknowledged in recent years. However, the misspecification of maximum lag in time-series models, particularly distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM), would induce considerable deviation of effect estimate. This study reviewed the existing time-series modeled climate-health reports to summarize the statistical methodologies used and the reported delays of association between meteorological variables and common causes of morbidity and mortality. Generalized linear or additive model was the most widely employed method for regression analysis. Different types of lag design were adopted for infectious disease modeling, including cross-correlation analysis, single lag model, moving average lag model, unconstrained or polynomial distributed lag model, and DLNM, whereas studies on non-communicable diseases predominantly used DLNM to assess the delays of association. For infectious outcomes, the association of daily mean temperature was found to be lagged for one to two weeks for influenza, followed by two to five weeks for diarrhea, and eight to twelve weeks for dengue fever. Meanwhile, the association of both cardiovascular and respiratory diseases with hot temperatures lasted for less than five days, whereas the association of cardiovascular diseases with cold temperatures was observed for ten to twenty days. Additionally, rainfall, as a potential risk factor for infectious diseases, showed a four to eight weeks’ lagged association with diarrheal diseases, while the effect was further delayed to eight to twelve weeks for vector-borne diseases.
Youth Political Engagement and the Climate Crisis
Poster Session Derick Hulme
Transforming the “Greta Thunberg moment” into enduring youth political engagement may be the linchpin upon which 21st century success in combatting climate change depends. Pursued collaboratively by Alma College, the Shiv Nadar Foundation, and the United Nations Information Center for India and Bhutan, a climate themed experiential learning initiative for thousands of Delhi area students grades seven through twelve was launched in 2013 with the express goal of engaging young Indian students with the existential issue of our time. Benefiting from a close teaching/mentoring relationship, Alma College and Shiv Nadar School students spend seven weeks annually examining various facets of the climate crisis, including water scarcity, forced migration, and conflict, with the goal of developing solutions at a school level Model UN conference. The results have been impressive, with students organizing climate oriented clubs and events, faculty and administrators incorporating climate change material throughout the curriculum, and the Shiv Nadar Foundation sponsoring the first all-India, climate change focused, Model UN conference in 2020. This poster highlights the importance of transnational, multi-stakeholder, collaborative efforts to provide youth with avenues by which they can both learn about climate change and, most importantly, develop a sense of political efficacy that will inform their adult political engagement.
Changes of the Quelccaya Ice Cap Between 1984 and 2019
Online Poster David Mendes, Felipe Ferreira Monteiro, Lourdes Villavicencio, Lara De Melo Barbosa
Tropical glaciers are important natural resources, in that they play a prominent role in water supply in the dry season. The majority of the tropical glaciers worldwide are located in the Peruvian Andes, where the largest tropical ice cap on earth (Quelccaya) is found. Here we present a multi-temporal diagnosis of the Quelccaya cap located in the southern Andes of Peru, covering the period from 1984 to 2019. The cap extensions are derived from Landsat sensor images (TM, ETM+M and OLI/TIRS). For the mapping of the ice cap and formation of glacial lakes, the spectral indices NDSI (Normalized Difference Snow Index) and NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index) were used. The results of this research show evidence of a decrease in the cap during the last thirty-five years, which has an effect and inversely proportional relationship with the increase in the extent of glacial lake surfaces. Thus, it is hoped that this research will provide updated information to the scientific community and managers in the region.
