Twelfth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

This study evaluated current and future water requirements in cocoa, citrus and mango crops in Nilo (Cundinamarca-Colombia), to provide guidelines and adaptation measures in the evaluated region. A baseline and 11 future climate models were used, considering greenhouse gas scenarios defined as representative concentration pathways or RCP’s 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 by 2070, with the previous scenarios (44 in total), a single weighted average scenario was proposed, on which the analysis of water requirements and irrigation need for each crop was performed. Results show an increase in the average annual temperature of 2.7 °C in the weighted average, by the year 2070 in relation to the current value 26.5 ° C. Effective annual rainfall decreased 20.9% from 1023.8 to 810 mm, while ETo increased from 1338.4 to 1401.6 mm. Water requirements for cocoa will go from current 1099 mm to 1158.8 mm in the future scenario, for citrus will go from 792.4 to 830.5 mm and for mango from 1219.6 to 1276.9 mm, causing an increase in irrigation of 56% (332.8 to 519.3 mm), 68.7% (108.6 to 183.2 mm) and 71.1% (281.2 to 481.1 mm) for cocoa, citrus and mango, respectively. Some adaptation guidelines are 1) to promote the cultivation of citrus fruits, which is the one that needs the least irrigation according to the climatic conditions of the region, 2) study the viability of rainwater harvesting, 3) design adequate irrigation infrastructure for efficient use of water and 4) explore different sowing dates, among others.