The Economics of Climate Action
Agricultural Economic Losses in 2050: A Model Combining Drought, Excess of Water and Frost at the French Farm Scale
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Dorothee Kapsambelis, David Moncoulon, Martine Veysseire, Jean Cordier
The IPCC (2014) projections in terms of consequences on climate change in the future focus on long-term average trends on agricultural yields. These trends give information for decision-makers on agricultural productivity, food security and agricultural land projections. On the other hand, insurers and re-insurers focus on extreme yield losses due to systemic natural disasters, i.e. the climatic accidents. At the insurance market scale, extreme losses are due to extended geographical events with a correlation of individual losses at a multi-region scale. This model is calibrated for extreme drought, excess of water and frost for field crops, fruits, and vineyards. The originality of these simulations is to maintain during 400 years the climate forcing about the year 2000 on one hand and about the year 2050 according to the RCP 8.5 on the other. This methodology provides a large number of climatic scenarios in order to step back on the extreme losses characterized by a very low probability of annual occurrence. The correlation between drought, excess of water and frost is driven by the ARPEGE climatic simulations and combined in a unique damage model. These results will add a contribution to risk management decision-making and public policies.
Leveraging Green Bonds for Climate Impacts: Findings from an Evaluative Review of the Green Bond Market
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Raghavan Narayanan
Investment needs over the two decades are considered for renewable energy, the energy efficiency portion of building investments, and low-emission vehicles. These three sectors accounted for 75% of outstanding labeled green bonds as of June 2015. The analysis suggests that the 2020s have the potential to be the beginning of the “golden years” for bond issuance in the low-carbon sectors. As low-carbon technologies mature, they become more familiar with bond markets which can become substantial contributors to the financing and re-financing of new-build assets. As the costs of assets fall and as policy stabilizes, the role played by bonds could expand rapidly. The analysis examines the potential for different types of the bond to finance a range of sectors and sub-sectors of low-carbon investments studied; displaying a picture of the volume of outstanding securities through to 2035 and the speed at which they could potentially scale up. Further, the paper analyzes the World Bank Group approach to Green Bonds and some of the emerging findings relating to developing a low carbon transition in client countries.
Assessing the Contributions of Tourism Mobility to Climate Change: Carbon Emissions Control Versus Mitigation Strategies for Mauritius
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Preeya Vijaya Ramasamy Coolen, Toshima Makoondlall-Chadee
International travel has constantly been increasing and will keep on climbing according to worldwide forecasts. It is predicted that by 2035, the tourism and travel industry will remain a major economic generator to many countries, including Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Increase in tourist arrivals and departures imply more travelling modes either by air or inland. These travelling modes definitely have a negative impact on the environment--mainly emissions of Carbon dioxide (CO2). Tourists who choose destinations such as isolated islands like Mauritius unfortunately have to take long-haul flights. Moreover, for entertaining tourists during their visit on islands, land transportation and related in-land tourism activities inevitably further lead to an additional increase in CO2 emissions. With predicted increases in CO2 emissions, appropriate actions have to be taken. Consequently, this paper is aimed at analysing quantitatively the link between tourism mobility and its contribution to climate change, particularly for the island of Mauritius. The collection of appropriate secondary data from related stakeholders helped to gauge an understanding of the tourism mobility, its associated relationship between CO2 emissions and climate change challenges along with mitigation strategies for Mauritius. The analysis included a systematic time series estimation of the overall CO2 due to air and in-land travel, which demonstrated ultimately the continual increase of CO2 emission in Mauritius owing to tourism mobility. The paper also probed analytically into providing appropriate mitigation measures towards addressing challenges arising from tourism mobility.
