Twelfth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

The IPCC (2014) projections in terms of consequences on climate change in the future focus on long-term average trends on agricultural yields. These trends give information for decision-makers on agricultural productivity, food security and agricultural land projections. On the other hand, insurers and re-insurers focus on extreme yield losses due to systemic natural disasters, i.e. the climatic accidents. At the insurance market scale, extreme losses are due to extended geographical events with a correlation of individual losses at a multi-region scale. This model is calibrated for extreme drought, excess of water and frost for field crops, fruits, and vineyards. The originality of these simulations is to maintain during 400 years the climate forcing about the year 2000 on one hand and about the year 2050 according to the RCP 8.5 on the other. This methodology provides a large number of climatic scenarios in order to step back on the extreme losses characterized by a very low probability of annual occurrence. The correlation between drought, excess of water and frost is driven by the ARPEGE climatic simulations and combined in a unique damage model. These results will add a contribution to risk management decision-making and public policies.