Scientific Evidence II
Runaway Greenhouse Effect
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Samuel E. Moskowitz
In the greenhouse effect, the atmosphere traps thermal energy from the Sun, thereby warming the Earth's surface. Carbon dioxide is a principal greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, generated by burning fossil fuels and deforestation. Industries that rely on fossil fuels have returned inordinate wealth to investors at the expense of natural resources. Satellites and weather stations have recorded consequences that include glacier retreat, heat waves, wildfires, fertile land degradation, thinning of arctic ice sheets, and rising seas. Present day concerns from scientific warnings are based on future projections. The Kyoto Protocol with an extension is a treaty that aims to lessen greenhouse gas concentrations to a magnitude that prevents dangerous anthropogenic interference within a balanced climate. Amenability to reduce emissions is placed on the developed countries since they are primarily responsible for current levels. Their response is not to ratify the agreement for any future burden lies with underdeveloped nations. International responses have placed national interests above the implementation of mitigating measures. If gases are not drastically reduced, runaway greenhouse effect can ultimately occur in which carbon dioxide would block infrared radiation, prevent the Earth from cooling, and retain water. We discuss the physics underlying this phenomenon. Fossil fuels produce carbon dioxide that furthers positive radiative forcing. Earth receives more incoming energy from sunlight than it sheds into outer space. The increment causes widespread warming. If greenhouse gases are not reduced, an inherent uncontrolled natural process can occur in which there is irreparable damage to the climate.
An Ideation Tool for Evaluating Products, Services, or Policies Based on their Impact on People and Climate: The Ideal Product Theory
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Neeraja Kulkarni
Sikkim, in 1975, became India’s twenty-second State. Farming and tourism are the most practiced occupations in Sikkim. In 2003, the Sikkim Government concluded that Sikkim turning organic would be economically profitable, and would enhance the environmental status of the state, thereby encouraging eco-tourism and improving biodiversity. Organic farming is a method of farming without the use of chemical fertilizers and genetically modified (GM) seeds. However, it was observed that every stakeholder in the value chain of organic vegetables faced significant difficulties, particularly the farmers. To understand this further, design research about organic farming concerning vegetable produce was conducted under Echostream Pvt. Ltd., a design studio in Gangtok, Sikkim. Sikkim received 14.5 Lakh tourists in 2017 while the projected local population after the 2011 Census was 6.43 Lakh. The imbalanced flow of distribution led to the formation of an intricate web of concerns relating to production and consumption. It is extremely difficult to solve these concerns synchronically or efficiently. The present study looked at the relation of Sikkim producing organic produce to the way it is being distributed and consumed. As a result, the Ideal Product Theory has been put forth: Production, Consumption, and Distribution are three components that can be weighed together, as a tool, while innovating a specific service, product or policy. Although a profoundly ideal product can probably not exist, innovative solutions with thought-out production, consumption, and distribution together, can become the most ideal products in terms of environmental sustainability and the psychological well-being of people involved.
Indicator-based Vulnerability Assessment of Critical Oil and Gas Infrastructure to Climate Change Impacts in the Niger Delta
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Justin Udie
The impact of climate change burdens such as flood, storms, and the rising temperature continues to force the vulnerability of oil and gas infrastructure in the Niger Delta, reducing production, causing wear and tear, oil spill and pollution and community health issues. Lack of clear understanding of climate change indicators and their vulnerability thresholds is blamed for exacerbated impacts. Accordingly, a systematic review illuminated and synthesized seven (7) vulnerability indicators (adaptive capacity, proximity, criticality, exposure, presence of risks, interdependence, and age/obsolescence) to facilitate an indicator-based vulnerability assessment. Through structured focus groups and elite interviews, seven (7) infrastructures (wellheads, transformers/HVC, loading bays, flow stations, roads/bridges, terminal and pipelines) were scoped for pairwise comparison. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was implemented in a seven exclusive (7 by 7) pairwise assessments to determine vulnerability hierarchies (v %) of the infrastructures. Results of most vulnerable from each exclusive assessment are extracted with corresponding indicator as indicated: Presence of risks (pipelines, v = 36.3%), Interdependence (terminals, v = 34.2%), Criticality (flow stations, v = 28.8%), Age/obsolescence (pipelines, v = 27.1%), Exposure to risks (pipelines v = 25.3%), Proximity to risks (pipelines, v = 25.1%), and Adaptive capacity (loading bays, v = 23.4%). A consolidated hierarchical analysis shows that pipelines (24.7%), terminals (16.9%), and roads/bridges (14.1%) are most vulnerable while flow-stations (12.5%), loading-bays (11.7%), transformers/HVC (10.9%) and wellheads (9.2%) are less vulnerable, based on selected climate change indicators. Climate adaptations alternatives are recommended accordingly to drive a sustainable operation in the Niger Delta oil/gas industry.
