Twelfth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

The impact of climate change burdens such as flood, storms, and the rising temperature continues to force the vulnerability of oil and gas infrastructure in the Niger Delta, reducing production, causing wear and tear, oil spill and pollution and community health issues. Lack of clear understanding of climate change indicators and their vulnerability thresholds is blamed for exacerbated impacts. Accordingly, a systematic review illuminated and synthesized seven (7) vulnerability indicators (adaptive capacity, proximity, criticality, exposure, presence of risks, interdependence, and age/obsolescence) to facilitate an indicator-based vulnerability assessment. Through structured focus groups and elite interviews, seven (7) infrastructures (wellheads, transformers/HVC, loading bays, flow stations, roads/bridges, terminal and pipelines) were scoped for pairwise comparison. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was implemented in a seven exclusive (7 by 7) pairwise assessments to determine vulnerability hierarchies (v %) of the infrastructures. Results of most vulnerable from each exclusive assessment are extracted with corresponding indicator as indicated: Presence of risks (pipelines, v = 36.3%), Interdependence (terminals, v = 34.2%), Criticality (flow stations, v = 28.8%), Age/obsolescence (pipelines, v = 27.1%), Exposure to risks (pipelines v = 25.3%), Proximity to risks (pipelines, v = 25.1%), and Adaptive capacity (loading bays, v = 23.4%). A consolidated hierarchical analysis shows that pipelines (24.7%), terminals (16.9%), and roads/bridges (14.1%) are most vulnerable while flow-stations (12.5%), loading-bays (11.7%), transformers/HVC (10.9%) and wellheads (9.2%) are less vulnerable, based on selected climate change indicators. Climate adaptations alternatives are recommended accordingly to drive a sustainable operation in the Niger Delta oil/gas industry.