Assessing Impacts in Divergent Ecosystems
Projected Impacts of Climate on Temperature-Humidity Index under RCP Scenarios
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Nozar Ghahreman, Iman Babaeian, Sajad Asgari
The temperature humidity index (THI) is one of the measures which describe the heat stress, especially while animals' production (meat and milk) is considered. It is expected that THI values would vary due to changes in temperature and humidity in the coming decades. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change on THI and milk production under RCP climatic scenarios proposed in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of IPCC in the western region of Iran. The climatic projections required for calculation of THI values during the future period were obtained from EC-EARTH model outputs, downscaled and calibrated for the study region. The suitable equation for calculation of THI was based on the climatic condition of selected study stations. The index values for baseline and future period were calculated and the trend of variation was worked out. Besides, the number of days with different level of heat stress in annual and monthly basis under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios during four periods of 1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071 to 2100 were calculated and compared with corresponding values of the baseline period. The results revealed that the index would be less affected by climate change during the months of April and May. The trend of milk production affected by climate change, during the future period is decreasing and significant at 99% level of confidence. Such that, by 2100, under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, milk production would decrease 1 and 2 Kg per year, respectively.
Modeling the Impact of Livestock Intensification on the Environment and Public Health in Sub-saharan Africa
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Lauren Morris, Scott Moreland
Africa is expected to become one of the fastest growing economic regions in the world. As income grows, the demand for livestock and livestock products will also increase. These developments are likely to spur dramatic intensification and expansion of livestock production. But rapid growth also poses economic and health risks from diseases among animals and people, antimicrobial resistance, and environmental degradation. We developed a One Health policy modeling tool to generate information for policy dialogue and decision-making to mitigate risks from livestock intensification on human, animal, and environmental health. Outputs include the number of cases of a specified zoonotic disease in animals and humans and the burden of zoonotic disease in humans, measured in DALYs and in economic impact. The model also projects changes in the water use and green-house gas emissions emanating from livestock. Users can design scenarios that mirror potential strategies and interventions to mitigate the consequences of livestock growth and intensification on human, animal and environmental health. Simulations for livestock in the African Sustainable Livestock 2050 initiative in four countries- Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda- show that under “best-case” scenarios there will be significant impacts on the environment and economy. For example, in Uganda, under the best-case scenario the overall cost of zoonoses emanating from cattle is expected to reach 2.5% of GDP and greenhouse gas emissions reduced from 20% of current CO2 emissions to around 10%.
Livestock and Climate Change: Under-Appreciated Role Of Adapted Dwarf Cattle in Climate Smart Animal Agriculture
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Muhammed Elayadeth Meethal
Livestock is a contributor to and victim of climate change. Livestock production is one of the sources of major greenhouse gases (GHGs): methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide. Livestock produces methane through enteric and manure emissions. Livestock production contributes 47-54% of methane to the global GHG pool. Climate adversities badly affect the health, production, welfare, and survival of animals. This paper discusses the adaptation and mitigation potential of dwarf cattle in climate-resilient animal agriculture. The smaller size of dwarf cattle gives energetic advantage to the animals, providing them the ability to cope with increased warming. The metabolic efficiency and ability to better utilise low-quality roughages also help to reduce the carbon footprint as methane production results in a net loss of energy. We summarise that use of ecologically resilient dwarf cattle may enhance methane mitigation and help reduce the impact of climate change on livestock.
