Twelfth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

Africa is expected to become one of the fastest growing economic regions in the world. As income grows, the demand for livestock and livestock products will also increase. These developments are likely to spur dramatic intensification and expansion of livestock production. But rapid growth also poses economic and health risks from diseases among animals and people, antimicrobial resistance, and environmental degradation. We developed a One Health policy modeling tool to generate information for policy dialogue and decision-making to mitigate risks from livestock intensification on human, animal, and environmental health. Outputs include the number of cases of a specified zoonotic disease in animals and humans and the burden of zoonotic disease in humans, measured in DALYs and in economic impact. The model also projects changes in the water use and green-house gas emissions emanating from livestock. Users can design scenarios that mirror potential strategies and interventions to mitigate the consequences of livestock growth and intensification on human, animal and environmental health. Simulations for livestock in the African Sustainable Livestock 2050 initiative in four countries- Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda- show that under “best-case” scenarios there will be significant impacts on the environment and economy. For example, in Uganda, under the best-case scenario the overall cost of zoonoses emanating from cattle is expected to reach 2.5% of GDP and greenhouse gas emissions reduced from 20% of current CO2 emissions to around 10%.