Economic Implications
Adaptation Cost and Benefit to Sea level Rise in a Vulnerable Coastal City in Sub-Saharan Africa, Banjul, The Gambia
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Nfamara K Dampha
Several studies explore the nexus between migration, climate change, and other environmental challenges. However, there is limited investigation using both qualitative and quantitative methods in establishing the above linkages based on households’ risk perception. Using a household survey approach, we find that avoiding climate and environmentally-induced migration requires pro-activeness in reducing households’ risk and enhancing their adaptive capacity. Anchored on the New Economics Theory, households in The Gambia’s capital city, Banjul are employing migration, as an early avoidance behavior strategy to avert devastating climate change impacts (e.g. rising sea levels) threatening the island city. Accordingly, the findings of our study revealed as follows. First, the net migration rate in Banjul has declined by 113% between 1983 and 2013. Second, 64% of current households in Banjul express positive Willingness to Migrate (WTM) any time before 2050 with and if condition. Third, on average, current households in Banjul are 33% more likely to migrate if they perceive that climate and environmentally-induced factors are primarily responsible for the city's high out-migration rate, ceteris paribus. Fourth, over 30,000 Islanders in Banjul are at risk of becoming Environmental Migrants (EMs) with a mean global Sea Level Rise of 1.0m by 2100, if no aggressive adaptation is considered now. Among others, we recommend that The Gambia government and Islanders in Banjul utilize internal migration as a risk-reduction and adaptation strategy for sustainability purposes.
Regional Income Distribution and Poverty: Vulnerability to Climate Change
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Md. Shah Alamgir
Climate change is the reality and a major development challenge to Bangladesh, made the mostly vulnerable country in the world. It is expected to adversely affect all economic sectors specifically agriculture and threatens to escalate the magnitude of poverty. Regional poverty under climate change impacts on farm production is an important challenge to Bangladesh. This study employs cluster analysis, Gini coefficient, variance decomposition analysis, and lognormal distribution under two scenarios (baseline and yield loss) to check the vulnerability of farm income and regional poverty. Estimated poverty rates are for yield loss of rice production due to potential climate change impact. The analytical results show that income inequality exists among the regions while variance of rice income significantly contributes to agricultural income differences. The reduction of the farm income appears to be increase the poverty rates in Jamalpur and Netrokona districts. Overall, this analysis may help to establish links between the farm income distribution and poverty under the potential impact of climate change. Therefore, this study has to evaluate and predict the potential implications and recommend that appropriate technology interventions could substantially reduce losses of farm income from climate change impact in Mymensingh region and elsewhere, where similar conditions prevail.
Climate Change's Effect on US Pacific Homeland Security
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Shannon Breanne Welch
Since the establishment of the United States, the Pacific has been a crucial interest for both economic and security reasons. As early as 1825, U.S. president John Adams required a better navy to ensure the “flourishing of commerce and fishery extending to the islands of the Pacific.” And, as recently as 2012, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton affirmed that America knew the Pacific Islands were “strategically and economically vital and becoming more so.” The Trump administration tried to reintroduce this long standing concept with its call for a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” and extended the strategic geography of the Western Pacific to spread into the Indian Ocean region. Though it seems to many global risk analysts that we are making the shift to the pacific too late, the U.S. has had over a century of homeland security built up in the region. This presence of the military has been split into three main regions in the South Pacific: Hawaii, Guam and the Federated States of Micronesia. The region remains strategically vital to the U.S. for two key reasons. First, it is in U.S. interests to prevent the emergence of a regional hegemon that could threaten America and its allies; and second, the U.S. wants to maintain the free flow of goods and ideas to Asia.
Economic Reform and Environmental Policies in Response to Climate Change in Vietnam
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Lam Tran Dinh
Vietnam economic reform brought about many encouraging achievements. From a poor country whose food import reached 450.000 tons due to inefficient management in planning the economy, it rose to a middle-income country after 35 years of reform since the opening policy in 1986 as it became the 2nd rice exporter in the world. However, the promotion of economic reform towards sustainable development, adaptation to climate change is essential to Vietnam as of now: what should be done to apply governmental policies into practice more efficiently, help people aware of the importance of climate change in order to reduce its impact on livelihood. Long term cooperation between government, enterprises, and people to create a practical development model with close attention to growth quality is a crucial key to the successful development of Vietnam.
