Eleventh International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

Several studies explore the nexus between migration, climate change, and other environmental challenges. However, there is limited investigation using both qualitative and quantitative methods in establishing the above linkages based on households’ risk perception. Using a household survey approach, we find that avoiding climate and environmentally-induced migration requires pro-activeness in reducing households’ risk and enhancing their adaptive capacity. Anchored on the New Economics Theory, households in The Gambia’s capital city, Banjul are employing migration, as an early avoidance behavior strategy to avert devastating climate change impacts (e.g. rising sea levels) threatening the island city. Accordingly, the findings of our study revealed as follows. First, the net migration rate in Banjul has declined by 113% between 1983 and 2013. Second, 64% of current households in Banjul express positive Willingness to Migrate (WTM) any time before 2050 with and if condition. Third, on average, current households in Banjul are 33% more likely to migrate if they perceive that climate and environmentally-induced factors are primarily responsible for the city’s high out-migration rate, ceteris paribus. Fourth, over 30,000 Islanders in Banjul are at risk of becoming Environmental Migrants (EMs) with a mean global Sea Level Rise of 1.0m by 2100, if no aggressive adaptation is considered now. Among others, we recommend that The Gambia government and Islanders in Banjul utilize internal migration as a risk-reduction and adaptation strategy for sustainability purposes.