Fourteenth International Conference on Health, Wellness & Society

Abstract

The complex transmission dynamics of malaria are strongly influenced by environmental conditions, temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind speed and altitude, among others. Climate warming may make the areas previously too cool for vector population establishment now suitable. In this study, we summarize the best available evidence on the influence of climate change on malaria incidence in Africa. A rapid evidence synthesis was applied. Relevant studies from PubMed, the Cochrane Library, Health system evidence, Epistemonikos, and SUPPORT summary were searched. Our results indicate climate change will increase all-age malaria mortality by 2.6%. The occurrence of transmission peaks in 26–28 °c. The Western and some region of Central Africa might lose their suitability for A. arabiensis and A. gambiae. The Southern and Eastern part become more favorable for these malaria vectors. Substantial increases in populations at risk are projected in East Africa. Urbanization act synergistically with warming climate as ‘heat islands’ and creating vector breeding habitat. Dams are expected to add 1.2–3.0 million malaria cases annually in 2020s to 2080s. The relationship between malaria and temperature is positively weak. At higher temperature survival rate of malaria decreases. So, under the hottest and driest scenarios near elimination of mosquito populations is predicted. Conclusions Under uncontrolled situation trend of malaria was estimated to increase in different parts of Africa especially SSA. Some malaria vector was also expected to shift from the current location based on suitability of temperature. Some productive activities like dam construction are contributing to the African malaria increase if not mitigated.