Efficacy of Advanced Metrics in Predicting End-of-Season Award Outcomes in the National Basketball Association

Abstract

Traditional National Basketball Association (NBA) box-score statistics, including points, rebounds, blocks, and assists, offer quantitative measurements for comparing players and assessing their impact on team success. Despite the usefulness of these basic statistics, some analysts argue that they are insufficient in quantifying a player’s overall impact on the game’s outcome. This has led to the rise of “advanced metrics,” which claim to provide more reliable measurements of individual player productivity. Previous research has underscored the value in utilizing advanced metrics for assessing player performance and team composition to determine NBA team success. However, there is a gap in understanding as to whether these metrics, largely utilized by sports analysts, reflect public perceptions of the most skilled players in the NBA. Using data from open-source data repositories, such as Basketball-Reference, FiveThirtyEight and BBall-Index, this study aims to assess the effectiveness of advanced metric statistical categories, including Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings (RAPTOR) and Luck-adjusted player Estimate using a Box prior Regularized ON-off (LEBRON), in predicting end-of-season award vote shares in the NBA. Given the end-of-season award voting process, where members of the media rank the best players in the league, the share of votes received by a player should be relatively consistent with their statistical production. By correlating these advanced metrics with end-of-season award voting results, we identify which advanced metric categories align with popular perceptions of the best players in a given NBA season.

Presenters

Anthony Taylor
Student, Bachelor's in Business Administration, Menlo College, California, United States

Sean Pradhan
Associate Professor of Sports Management and Business Analytics, School of Business, Menlo College, California, United States

Details

Presentation Type

Poster Session

Theme

Sports Management and Commercialization

KEYWORDS

Keywords: Professional Basketball, National Basketball Association, Advanced Metrics, End-of-Season Awards

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