Third International Conference on Communication & Media Studies

Abstract

Most recent research in the field of media-policy relations suggests media-originating influence is unlikely in most foreign policy cases. In instances where media-originating influence has been found, scholars have pointed to the existence of “policy uncertainty”—the absence of a clear policy response—among decision-makers as the determining factor. While this is a valuable finding, it fails to address the question of whether factors originating in the media might contribute to media efficacy in agenda setting. In other words, existing research fails to address the role of “media certainty” (operationalized here as the degree of media narrative cohesion across partisan divides). In factoring in the role of media certainty in setting policy agendas, this research follows two case studies within the US and Canada occurring during the 2015 European migrant crisis: media and policy response to the death of Alan Kurdi and to the Paris terror attacks. In both cases, a longitudinal framing analysis was applied to newspaper coverage from the New York Times and Wall Street Journal (US), and the Globe and Mail and National Post (Canada). The results of this analysis were then compared with timelines of policy discourse and action connected with each case. The results of these analyses suggest that media certainty is likely an important determiner for media influence on policy. Media influence is strongest when media certainty coincides alongside policy uncertainty, and weakest when media uncertainty coincides alongside policy certainty.