Fourth International Conference on Tourism and Leisure Studies

Abstract

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) tourism has been one of the key growth sectors and has proven resilient amid global economic challenges. Understanding the tourist arrival is essential in the growth of the countries’ growth or decline of tourism. It is also important to forecast tourist arrivals in order to assist the industry as a whole. However, there is a gap when most of these forecasts were based on assumptions of normality when in fact, the tourist arrival behavior is non-normal. The researchers were able to find out the hidden dimension of tourist arrivals. The fractal dimension is a methodology that studies complex and repetitive patterns. This methodology assisted the researchers to arrive at results that discovered problems with the traditional means vs fractal means in forecasting tourism. The results also prove that there is an effect on how low-cost carriers and travel advisories influence tourist arrivals.