Aging & Social Change: Eleventh Interdisciplinary Conference

Abstract

Population aging has become a common situation in developed countries. Population aging is also considered a megatrend in demography. At present, some developing countries will soon experience the population aging, and Indonesia is one of them. Therefore, a population projection needs to be done, especially for the elderly population. System dynamics modeling is used to carry out the population aging projections in Indonesia. Population projections with system dynamics are carried out by dividing the population into categories: young age (0-14 years), adults (15-39 years), middle-aged (40-64 years), and elderly (65+ years). The results of the population projection using system dynamics modeling show that the number of the elderly population continues to increase each year. In 2025, the elderly population will be 20,570,260 residents. In 2035, the elderly population will be increased up to 29,357,190 residents. The comparison of the number of the elderly population with the total population in percentage will be 9.71% in 2035. Dependency ratio will reach 48.19. Meanwhile, the aging index will be 44.4 in 2035. By looking at the results of this population projection, it can be said that Indonesia continues to experience the population aging process.