Fourteenth Global Studies Conference

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of three types of power inequality – political, economic, and information – on the future international order, specifically quality of life as measured by the UN’s Human Development Index (HDI) and social stability as measured by homicide rates per capita. It identifies “red lines” of inequality at which point countries may begin to, and then finally, break into two separate societies, causing significant social problems. Two different red lines are used. “Fracture points” are levels of inequality beyond which it’s possible for a country to experience a degradation in quality of life or stability after that line is crossed, but not before. “Breaking points” are inequality red lines beyond which countries are more likely than not to see serious degradations of quality of life and security once crossed. Both of these metrics may be useful tools for conducting predictive analysis on the impact of inequality trends in various countries on their future quality of life and social stability. It finds that political inequality is the greatest predictor of changes in quality of life as measured by the HDI while economic inequality is the greatest predictor of changes in social stability as measured by the homicide rate. The paper also uses the United States as a case study and finds that there are significant implications for the US if current inequality trends continue and the US crosses the “breaking point” red lines for quality of life and social stability in the future.