Twelfth Global Studies Conference

Abstract

The changing nature of both the technology and innovation has led to the evolution of near-realtime event data keeping track of what is happening throughout the world. These disaggregated data may be utilized not only for observation but also for the specific need to forecast the conflict/cooperation level for specified temporal and spatial levels. Whether regarded as an early-warning system of violence or an opinion for investment/action decisions, forecasts of conflict/cooperation levels may also be enhanced with different exogenous variables. Coupled with the informational significance of the globalized financial market movements, the forecasts may be enhanced. This paper is based on a case study of Turkey between 2005 and 2015. The ARIMA and GARCH models of Turkey’s conflict/cooperation level time series will be investigated as to the effect of key financial instruments in forecasting capacity. The preliminary results indicate that utilization of specific financial indicators within time series models may empower more robust forecasts.