Twelfth Global Studies Conference

Abstract

The Reasonable Probability of Success criterion is widely considered one of six individually necessary and jointly sufficient requirements that must be satisfied for it to be ethically permissible to resort to war. As the title suggests, this criterion stipulates that it wrong to wage even a war of self-defence if one’s state does not have a reasonable probability of repelling the threat one faces. Harry van der Linden has claimed that this principle unfairly favours the United States by effectively granting it a form of moral immunity. He argued that Just War Theory does not “offer adequate guidelines for adversaries of the United States when confronted with its overwhelming military might, especially in cases where its exercise of force is morally questionable.” Van der Linden’s criticism of the requirement of a Reasonable Probability of Success relies on a simplistic understanding of the probability that militarily weak states have of mitigating or averting United States’ aggression. The concern motivating his criticism is that this criterion can never be satisfied by states confronted by the United States. This is simply not the case, therefore Just War Theory does not have to be amended in light of the United States military hegemony.