Twelfth Global Studies Conference

Abstract

Before Donald Trump became the president of the United States, the US largely tolerated China’s behaviors, including the large trading imbalance between the two countries. However, since Trump came to power, the US has made a 180 degree change in terms of its foreign policy, and China has become the biggest target. The root source of conflict stems from existing international orders established by the US with its western allies being challenged. A big question is whether the rise of a new power makes us into the Thucydides Trap. It is noted that globalization in the last few decades may be encountering resistance of nationalism. Escalating conflict increases the possibility of the war while international dialogue may prevent it from happening. This research uses three important indictors (e.g., GDP，international trade, and stock prices) to partially gauge the result of trade war between the two countries. The first phase is to establish where these figures are stand prior to Trump’s new trade policies (07/05, 2018). The second phase is to measure our indicators one year after the trade war (07/04, 2019). Finally, we take measures three years after the trade war (07/05, 2021). We expect that all indicators will be negatively impacted by the trade war.