Eleventh Global Studies Conference

Abstract

This paper focuses on why some developing countries transition out of the fragility trap towards stability while others do not. For example, countries such as Mozambique, Guatemala, and East Timor have pulled themselves out of the fragility trap, whereas countries such as Pakistan, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo remain mired in extreme fragility. This paper explains why there are variations in the development and security outcomes between otherwise similar fragile countries. By documenting the known cases of long-term, extreme fragility and examining them systematically this research program tests structural aspects of each country situation as well as accounts for agency and leadership roles, both domestically and internationally. The findings indicate that, perhaps counter intuitively, outside interventions should focus not on the weakest aspects of the state but on the strongest. For states in the fragility trap, the level of each of the three dimensions is so low that focusing on the weakest one only leads to premature load bearing and isomorphic mimicry problems. Rather, interventions should target the dimension that is strongest, and build it up to the point where it will have a positive feedback effect on the other two dimensions. For example, for the state mentioned above that is strong in authority but weak in capacity, interventions should focus on authority first and foremost. This may mean strengthening the current political leadership and its related institutions, building inclusive political orders, and investing in rule of law (policing, judicial system, etc.). Once these reach a certain threshold, knock on effects will begin to be felt in the other dimensions, leading to an overall improvement and eventually an exit from the fragility trap.