Transforming Trends
Cascading Multi-Risks for Urban Green Infrastructure: An Analysis Methodology View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Raghid Shehayeb
More frequent and intense drought and heat events imply increasing multi-risks for urban green infrastructure (UGI) and their ecosystem services (ES). Given the significance of UGI towards urban resilience and climate adaptation, analyzing these cascading multi-risks is needed for evaluating the situation and taking adequate action in planning and managing UGI. Therefore, this research operationalizes the Drought and Heat Risk Assessment (DHR) Framework through a set of indicators, and determines the risk for selected ES. Urban parks, creeks and ponds are examined with their high ES potential and vulnerability of certain ES to droughts and heat such as the regulation of air quality and temperature, and providing an experiential interaction with nature. First, a multi-layer approach is applied to translate elements and processes of the biophysical risk system composed of the hazards, exposure, and cascading vulnerabilities into an information system. This information system is represented by layers of descriptors, attributes and indicators. Subsequently, a lane-based approach interrelates indicators based on their common attributes and highlights the key indicators. Using the attributes of the drought and heat hazards, the vulnerability indicators are linked with the hazards to derive risk indicators. The derived risk indicators enable calculating the risks cascading from the UGI biophysical entities towards the ES. An example is provided of the drought and heat risks for the ES of an urban park in Plauen, Germany with its spatiotemporal dimensions. The risk analysis determines the risks and hotspots for decision makers to evaluate, and if necessary, implement risk-reduction alternatives.
Are We Transforming to Face Droughts and Extreme Precipitations in a Changing Climate? Atacama and Aconcagua Valley, Chile View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Paulina Aldunce, Fernanda Haverbeck Flores
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges human society is facing. The patterns of climate-related hazards, such as extreme precipitation events and droughts, are changing; and they are expected to continue increasing in frequency and magnitude. The society future is uncertain, and for complex problems, such as climate change, incremental responses, while useful, have not been nor will they suffice. Therefore, incremental responses must be complemented by transformational ones as deeper changes in society are required. This study informs transformation theory and practice, by unfolding the current transformational responses to drought and extreme precipitation impacts in Chile, to be useful for thinking in a transformed future. The overarching research method is case study, in Atacama for extreme precipitation events and in Aconcagua Valley for extreme droughts in Chile. A multi-method approach is used, including literature and document review, observation, and interviews (51 interviews conducted during 2022 and 2023). Results show a greater amount of incremental adaptation practices, with only a few transformational ones. Some examples are collective initiatives that have emerged from the grassroots as a response to climate change and environmental degradation impacts in a context of structural inequity present in Chilean society. Some other transformational practices are focused on changing the normative related for example to rural water organizations. Studying the transformational approach through a critical lens reveals its potential to be a useful approach in specific contexts, to escalate this to other contexts, and in turn this study informs practice and policy.
