Thirteenth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

This research estimates a supply-demand model for assessing the influences of climate change on potato yield in Bangladesh. As the demand-side is arising over time, limited land availability and others production deterrents might also emerge as constraints on the supply of potato. With the impending food security issue on the minds, it should necessary to recognize the urgent need to estimate the future demand and supply of potato and potato products in Bangladesh that can ease the pressure on resources as well. The production of potatos in different regions of Bangladesh is impacted differently by climate changes. To discern those effects, there is a need to assess the effects of climate variables on the potato yield, area and its variability in Bangladesh using district-level time series data grouped into seven climate zones. To generate outlook on the variation of supply and market price of potato under climate change, yield, area, import, and demand functions were developed. The results indicate that high temperatures lower the yields of potato in most region but solar radiation had positive effect on yield in some regions. However, high rainfall impedes the potato cultivation areas during the maturity stage of potato. Increased domestic production of potato and the real world price are expected to enhance the export. Scenario analyses that combine the different dimensions of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios elucidate the future supply and demand of potato, revealing that potato production and consumption can be boosted in near future.