Thirteenth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

Assessing trends in temperature and rainfall characteristics based on past records together with future projections are vital to develop mitigation and proactive adaptation strategies. This study explores how trends in temperature and rainfall impacts sesame farming. Based on this, above 37 years (1980-2017) daily rainfall temeperature data were obtained from CHIRPS and ENACTS respectively to analyze and determine trends in annual and seasonal patterns. Sen’s estimator and Mann-Kendall’s statistical tests were used for trend detection. Coupled model inter comparison phase5 (CMIP5) was used to project future climate of the study area using R-software. Based on the analysis, the results indicate that rainfall in the area is seasonally highly variable (CV=32.2%) with a non-significant decreasing trend in annual totals. However, trends of rainfall events such as onset date (CV=42.27%), cessation date (CV=27%), LGP, and dry spell length has changed significantly. Maximum and minimum temperature has shown significant and increasing trends. Future projection climate of the under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 showed an increase in minimum and maximum temperature with above 1.5OC by 2040. Moreover, it is predicted that rainfall will decrease by 5.2% under RCP 8.5 with hive variability, CV (32%). These changes in temperature and rainfall will have a negative impact on phenological process and yield of sesame. Hence, it is recommended that sesame producers focus on designing intensive agronomic practices focusing on efficient water management options as well as introduction of drought tolerant sesame varieties to cope with inevitable changes in climate.