Thirteenth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

Agricultural production activities are generally more vulnerable to climate threats. The vulnerability of the Nigerian agricultural sector to climate variability is important because it accounts for 60-70% of the labor force and contributes about 40% to the Gross Domestic Product. Based on this, the study examined the impact of climate variability on cassava production by assessing changes in climate variables; estimating growth rate in production and evaluating the impact of climate variables on the production. Secondary data on cassava production and climate variables were collected from the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and Oyo state Agricultural Development Program (OYSADEP). The data collected were analyzed using trend, log quadratic trend equation and multiple regression. The results of the trend analysis showed that cassava production traced out a positive linear trend while annual rainfall, and temperature over the period were unstable. However, the trend forecasts suggested increasing rates of cassava production, temperature and decreasing rainfall in the next five years. The multiple regression model showed that precipitation posted positive coefficient in the short run but imposed a negative effect on cassava production over a long period of time while temperature influenced cassava production negatively both in the short and long run. On the basis of these findings, the study suggests the adoption of appropriate and proactive adaptation cum mitigation measures. These may include use of drought tolerant/resistant varieties, adoption of sustainable land management practices and intensification of campaigns to promote healthy environmental practices among farmers.