Thirteenth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

Local-level decision-makers are increasingly evaluating options to enhance carbon sequestration and avoid vehicle miles traveled (VMT) GHG emissions by preserving agricultural and forested land. This paper provides a novel combination of methods for evaluating the effect of conservation program design elements on landowners’ willingness to postpone development and the resulting impacts on atmospheric CO2 levels. We use Santa Clara, California as a case study, a county that encompasses agricultural, suburban, and urban land southeast of the San Francisco Bay. It is home to Silicon Valley and boasts the fifth largest county-level GDP in the United States. Using a Santa Clara parcel-level land use map, specified by major crop and land use categories, we use dynamic programming to predict optimal parcel-level land use with respect to expected net present value of land use, participation in conservation program, and development values, subject to a county-level conservation budget. Conservation program options considered include (1) a Williamson Act program-equivalent (a 10-year commitment, current-use property tax program), (2) a permanent conservation easement program where easement value is based on parcel-level development value, and (3) a carbon lease program of maximum 30-year commitment where enrollment value is based on avoided VMT emissions. This analytical framework will allow counties to assess the potential agricultural land protection and GHG outcomes of various conservation programs, using county-specific data and development dynamics. We expect such a framework will be valuable to many policy makers as they seek to address climate change at the local, state, and federal level.