Twelfth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

Climate change is widely recognized as the most important global environmental problem (Pachauri et al., 2014). Its effects directly translate into additional risks for smallholders’ food security in developing countries, which are particularly vulnerable due to their geographical and climatic conditions, weak capacities in reacting to environmental shocks and strong dependence on agriculture (Merts et al., 2009). Such threats can be reduced through a paradigm shift towards Sustainable Agricultural Intensification (SAI) systems, an innovative approach that relies on natural, social and human assets and the use of available technologies and inputs to simultaneously raising yields and production efficiency while minimizing or eliminating risks (Petersen and Snapp, 2015; Pretty et al., 2011). Using an econometric approach, the study empirically assesses factors affecting diffusion of SAI adoption in four countries of South-East Africa. A fractional regression model is estimated. The dependent variable is a novel indicator of famers’ innovation propensity, while explanatory variables concern farming systems, policy environment, institutions, value chain and climate change-related indexes. The use of an innovation index as part of a cross-country analysis represents an original aspect of the research. Preliminary results show households’ innovation propensity is affected by increased temperatures and erratic rainfalls. Socio-economic, institutional factors (e.g.; HHs characteristics, extension services access, and market orientation) and national-settings also are determinants of adoption. Appropriate policy actions should be designed to support extension services and strengthen their capacity to reach the smallholders, although it is fundamental to take in consideration socio-demographic and national contexts where SAI systems are promoted.