Twelfth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

Climate change impacts concerning extreme hot weather have seen an increase in the incidence of salmonellosis adding to the global burden currently associated with Salmonella infection. The aim of this study was to examine if there is a relationship between heatwaves and Salmonella cases in South Australia and to assess the impact of heatwaves on specific Salmonella serotypes and phage types. Daily maximum temperature and laboratory confirmed salmonellosis cases resident within metropolitan Adelaide and notified from 1990-2012 were extracted. Poisson regression analysis with Generalised Estimating Equations was used to estimate the effect of heatwaves and the impact of intensity, duration and timing on salmonellosis and specific serotypes. Distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature during heatwaves on Salmonella cases. Results: S.Typhimurium PT135 notifications were sensitive to the effects of heatwaves with a twofold (IRR 2.08, 95% CI 1.14-3.79) increase in cases relative to non-heatwave days. The effects of temperature during heatwaves on Salmonella cases and serotypes were found at lags of up to 14 days. This study has provided evidence that Salmonella serotypes and phage types are sensitive to the effects of heatwaves. Our findings indicate that higher temperature during a heatwave increases the risk of infection, and of serotypes and phage types. These findings support the need for targeted public health interventions and will inform development of policy recommendations for early warning systems about foodborne disease prevention during heatwaves.