Eleventh International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

Background: According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014), extreme climates pose a serious threat to human health. Rapid urbanization has made urban areas the hub of major health risks due to extreme temperatures. However, there is little effort being made to explore the possible effect of urban economic development on the relationship between temperature and mortality. This study aims to investigate the temperature-mortality relationship in 38 largest cities of China at the city level, regional level and national level, focusing on the influence of economic development on the response of mortality to extreme temperatures. Method: We built a distributed lag non-linear model based on daily mortality data, air pollution and meteorological variables in the 38 cities from 2010 to 2013. Then, a meta-analysis was performed to compare how the temperature-mortality association differed among the different GDP areas at various levels. Results: The difference in response of mortality to extreme temperatures among different GDP per capita regions was noticeable. The cold effect was more significant in low GDP cities both in North (RR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.26–2.07) and South (RR: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.16–2.41). The heat effect was only observed in the northern cities with low GDP level (RR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.02–1.74). Conclusion: Our findings concluded that economic development impact should be emphasized on the health risk of extreme temperatures, suggested more adaptive principles should be advocated for to ensure equitable health outcomes and to reduce the overall effects of climate change on public health in China.