Eleventh International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

In this study, results in the literature on the yield effects of climate change are first harmonized for China upon which three physical simulation models are combined with general equilibrium theory to draw consensus. In all cases, climate change seems to cause a decline in Chinese consumer prices of between 0.4 - 1.6% by 2060. Agricultural outputs are projected to increase by between 2 - 11% by 2060. In general, welfare gains driven by climate change are projected to increase by 1 - 1.4% by 2060. In summary, as long as CO2 effects and adaptation are fairly included within the modeling framework, Chinese agricultural sector appears to benefit from climate change. Hence, agricultural policies in China aimed at reducing CO2 emissions but problematic to agricultural yields should be treated with caution. These findings underscore the importance of properly accounting for the direct effect of CO2 on crop growth and farm level adaptation, as ignoring this leads to welfare losses in some instances.