Eleventh International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

Since the 1990s the bread basket had been produced in the eastern part (Raqqa, Dierzour, and Alhaska) of Syria. But before the conflict in Syria, the eastern part hit by drought waves between 2006 and 2009. Thus, this research aimed to answer the question is there any relation between climate change in Syria (2006- 2009) and the Syrian conflict? To achieve the study goal, main climate data and agricultural production had been collected from the Syrian Central Bureau of Statistics (Damascus) covering the period 2000- 2010. Also, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in the eastern part had been calculated. In a similar vein, some clues about labor forces changes and family income had been collected. The results show an increase in the temperature and a significant decrease in the average rainfall ranges between 20% and 63% of the total average rainfall for all metrological stations. Also, Mann-Kendall (MK) test of SPI-12 showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at all studied stations. Similarly, the significant decrease in agricultural production was recorded especially in 2008 where reduction up to 50%; 56%; 173% for wheat; Grazing clover and Grazing flowering respectively (compression to 2000). All of these rapid changes force farmers to flee their lands and migrate toward marginal areas near big cities; where the uprising starting in 2011. The significance of these findings is that it could support the idea that the climate change could be the anonymous agent catalyzed to the Syrian conflict.