Abstract
Global climate change might affect Brazilian agribusiness due to the production losses and also the adaptations needed to mitigate the impacts. The main objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of global warming on the total cost of broiler chicken as a function of the future scenarios presented by the IPCC using fuzzy logic. The database consisted of data from three levels of technology of broiler production, and two scenarios of the impact of global warming: optimistic and pessimistic. Cost of production was composed by variable and fixed costs. The optimistic scenario was represented by an increase of 2.5 °C, while the pessimistic one was considered as an increase of 3.0 °C. For each technology level used in broiler production, we calculated the variation of cost supposing the environmental temperature in the region increased both 2.5 and 3.0 °C. Low technology use in the production requires a higher investment in mitigating the heat stress leading to higher cost when compared to high technological broiler housing. In the studied scenarios, Brazilian broiler meat might not be competitive as it is nowadays.
Details
Presentation Type
Theme
Human Impacts and Impacts on Humans
KEYWORDS
Cost Analysis, Climate Change, Energy Consumption, Fuzzy Cimulation, Poultry Production
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