Eleventh International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

The coastal zones are highly dynamic and are susceptible to the diverse climatic changes. Threats to coastal ecosystem such as in Marudu Bay in the northern part of Malaysian Borneo, which has been recently gazetted as the largest marine park in Malaysia and home to diverse natural habitats and socio-economics activities are eminent under future climate scenarios. Under climate change scenarios, this study presented the results of the coastal vulnerability assessment within the bay based on the climate change exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. In this investigation, climate variables such as surface temperature, total precipitation and sea level rise were used and were analysed for the three time slices (2010, 2050 and 2100) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. Under these climate scenarios, Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) was developed to assess climate change vulnerability of the 12 geographical zones within the bay during the two prominent monsoons (winter monsson- January and summer monsoon- July). The level of coastal vulnerability at Marudu Bay was found to be moderate, both during winter monsoon and summer monsoon under RCP4.5 climate scenario for the year 2050 and 2100. However under RCP8.5, the coastal vulnerability has shifted to high level of vulnerability during summer monsoon in the mid century (2050) in five geographical zones, while at the end of the century (2100), all geographical zones except one were found to be highly vulnerable and therefore, these priority areas could potentially require high adaptations and mitigation investments.