Eleventh International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

The study estimates the relationship between paddy yields and climate variables using national-level time series data (1971-2014). ARDL Bound test and Granger non-causality test were performed. The overall findings reveal that three climate variables have substantial effects on the rice yield in Nepal. The co-integration exists in the rice yields-maximum temperature-minimum temperature-rain falls linkage for Nepal over the sample period. The influences of maximum temperature and minimum temperature are more noticeable compared with that of rainfall. Also, there is a positive and significant relationship between rainfall and rice yields in Nepal - increase in rain falls increases rice yields by 0.50%, holding all things constant. Given these effects of temperature on rice crops and increasing climate change vulnerabilities, policy makers should fund the research and development of temperature tolerant rice varieties, particularly for the development of rice yield.