Impact Variables
Small Holder Farmers' Perceptions and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Kyoga Plains of Uganda
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Chombo Oketcho
The sought to assess the vulnerability of small holder farmers of various socio-economic characteristics in the Kyoga plains of Uganda to climate change.it is thought that there is no spatial variation in the level of vulnerability to climate change among the small holder farmers and the level of vulnerability to climate change among them is not dependent on socioeconomic characteristics. The paper highlights the spatial dimensions of socioeconomic impacts of climate change in the communities. The conceptual framework is based on the link between perception of, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. A post positivist research paradigm was adopted for the paper. The main strategy of quantitative inquiry was the cross sectional survey. The qualitative elements were carried out through narratives with intention of developing themes from the data. The study was done in the Kyoga plains aggro-ecological zone of Uganda. Data was collected through data base review, focus group discussions, questionnaires and observation. Indicators for the components of vulnerability (Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity) were selected by Principle Component Analysis (PCA). The inter sub county vulnerability index showed a spatial variation in the level of vulnerability between the different sub counties. Cross tabulation of vulnerability with the ten socioeconomic characteristics of the farmers showed that level of income has the strongest positive correlation with the level of vulnerability. Policy measures should therefore focus on place specific strategies of adapting to climate change rather than region wide strategies and policy should emphasize non-farm livelihood activities.
Climate Impact on Survival and Biomass Production of Early Growth of Pinus Pinaster Ait
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Muha Abdullah Al Pavel, Encarna Rodríguez García, Felipe Bravo Oviedo, Cristóbal A Ordóñez Alonso
Maritime pine seeds from the Meseta Castellana provenance were germinated in laboratory and grown in different nursery conditions of light and Nitrogen availability. The seedlings were transplanted and grown with watering/ non-watering to simulating summer rainfall in the same locality of the seeds source for several years. The objectives of our study were: to identify the most important factors affecting sapling survival in field; to analyse the effect of climate factors on biomass production and partitioning; to compare different methods for biomass estimation; and to analyse the effect of climate factors on the annual basal diameter growth. We led four inventories for measuring biometric variables and counting survival in field. The final harvest was done to estimate biomass and basal diameter growth in the laboratory. A set of equations were fitted to consistent estimation of biomass, and the best models for each biomass components were fitted simultaneously according to seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method. The Dirichlet method was applied to estimation of the proportion of each biomass components. The cox and linear regression model were applied for survival and estimation of diameter growth, respectively. Our result found the rainfall in summer associate light and without light governed of survival and diameter growth of Maritime pine, respectively. Our result revealed the SUR method was better compared to Dirichlet methods for estimation of component biomass. Our results will helpful to establishing of forest management strategies from nursery products in the field condition, and to choosing the best methodologies to estimation of biomass.
Climate Impact and Vulnerability on Coastal Ecosystem of Marudu Bay, Sabah, Malaysia
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Justin Sentian, Herman Franky
The coastal zones are highly dynamic and are susceptible to the diverse climatic changes. Threats to coastal ecosystem such as in Marudu Bay in the northern part of Malaysian Borneo, which has been recently gazetted as the largest marine park in Malaysia and home to diverse natural habitats and socio-economics activities are eminent under future climate scenarios. Under climate change scenarios, this study presented the results of the coastal vulnerability assessment within the bay based on the climate change exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. In this investigation, climate variables such as surface temperature, total precipitation and sea level rise were used and were analysed for the three time slices (2010, 2050 and 2100) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. Under these climate scenarios, Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) was developed to assess climate change vulnerability of the 12 geographical zones within the bay during the two prominent monsoons (winter monsson- January and summer monsoon- July). The level of coastal vulnerability at Marudu Bay was found to be moderate, both during winter monsoon and summer monsoon under RCP4.5 climate scenario for the year 2050 and 2100. However under RCP8.5, the coastal vulnerability has shifted to high level of vulnerability during summer monsoon in the mid century (2050) in five geographical zones, while at the end of the century (2100), all geographical zones except one were found to be highly vulnerable and therefore, these priority areas could potentially require high adaptations and mitigation investments.
