Yulya Ponomaryuk’s Updates

Regional Conflicts in East Asia – a Role for China

The rise of China has raised more questions than answers regarding conflict probability, conflict resolution and the future of the security architecture in the East Asian region. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea, as well as historical periods of conflict between China and other Asian actors, have already complicated the relationship between states in the region.

In what ways has the rise of China changed the regional security architecture of the East Asian system and what events are corollary to such new paradigm shift? What aspects determine China’s role and the extent of China’s influence in regional conflicts?

Clearly, the rise of China has fundamentally shifted the security paradigm in the East Asian system away from the US dominated system, to a system of growing multilateral integration, utilizing various institutions such as free trade agreements and security dialog platforms.

The rising political, economic and military influence of China will give it license to be more assertive in regional conflicts, a variable for increased conflict likelihood. However, in reaction to this power shift, the region itself is further integrating and deferring open conflict in preference of mutual security cooperation as means of strengthening positions over security concerns.

Thusly, with the rise of China, it has been shown that even nations with competing economic pursuits and territorial claims can participate in a single, albeit loosely binding, security structure. Therefore, the rise of China is paradoxical in effect toward the security architecture of the region, simultaneously giving impetus to integration, a factor for conflict de-escalation, but also raising tension and military capability, a factor for greater conflict probability. In this short note, the notions of nested security regions will be examined in brief, followed by the outline of this paradoxical role of China in the developing regional security complex.

Please read the attached article for further innformation.

regional-conflicts-in-east-asia-a-role-for-china.pdf
  • Rafael Forteza
  • Rafael Forteza
  • Yulya Ponomaryuk