Fifteenth International Conference on Interdisciplinary Social Sciences

Abstract

The complexity of foreign policy decision-making and the volatility of the environment within which policy decisions are made, have raised a substantial level of interest in academic circles that attempt to explain the matter through research. Within the product (decision) – process – context dynamic, understanding the theory of decision-making is essential for extending knowledge about foreign policy decision-making. Several decision models were explored and two foundational models were selected, namely Rational Actor Model and Incrementalism; however, their utility was found to be limited. This research developed in two directions; on a practical level it contributes to knowledge on Russia’s foreign policy decision-making and, on a conceptual plane, to scholarship by way of theory development, underpinning academic research on decision-making in foreign policy. This qualitative research is informed by Grounded Theory approach and applies inductive reasoning, historiography and case study analysis. Rational Incrementalism, underpinned by its five principle: primacy of aims and objectives; the balancing role of agency and structure; the relationship between strategy and structure; the overarching impact of capabilities and context, constraining or enabling action; and last but not least, how and strategy adapts to protect a nations core interests. Through the prism of Rational Incrementalism, this research demonstrates that Russia’s foreign policy-decision making is far from a case of ‘muddling through,’ that is retains a long-term purposefulness and that its incremental decisions are guided by a farsightedness.