Twenty-second International Conference on New Directions in the Humanities

Abstract

Regional Security Complex Theorem (RSCT) is an international relations theory developed by Barry Buzan and Ole Waever in 2003 in Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security. RSCT uses a mixture of materialist and constructivist approaches. From the side of materialists, the theory incorporates the idea of limited territoriality and redistribution of forces, which makes it resemble neorealism. RSCT also has constructivists elements, for example, the theory of securitization, which focuses on the political process through which the issue of security is determined and where hostility and friendship are independent variables. South Caucasus is a centered RSC, with Russia as its center. And, according to RSCT in centered RSCs classical balance of power dynamic is suppressed. I propose that with the passage of time Russia will be more and more challenged in its RSC, by growing EU-Europe complex bumping into it and producing one supercomplex, or GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova) countries uniting and producing a counterweight. This scenario will probably lead to the following development: with the involvement of external powers like the US and Iran a minicomplex will form as part of a EU-Russian supercomplex with countries siding either with Russia or the US/EU. Turkey will likely be an insulator state among two complexes which will lose its insulator function and will side with either one of the parties.