Abstract
Trends in temperature and rainfall are critical indicators for the existence of climate change and variability within a certain area. This research analyzes the status of climate change by analyzing trends in temperature and rainfall. The trend of temperature and rainfall was analyzed using the modified Man Kindle tend test whereas the prediction of temperature and rainfall was done using The ARIMA model. The findings of reveal that monthly temperature shows a significant and increasing trend for March, April, May, June, and December with Z values of 3.96, 3.32, 2.64, 3.21and4.6, respectively. Seasonal and annual temperatures also show a significant increasing trend with the Z values of 4, 5.35, 5.08, and 4.41 for spring, autumn, winter, and annual, respectively. The Mankendle trend analysis results reveal that monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall show increasing and significant for some months and some seasons. The result of the ARIMA model suggests that the predicted values of temperature and rainfall show an increasing trend for the future 10 years in the study area. From the result, it is possible to conclude that temperature and rainfall show an increasing and significant trend and this trend will exceed in the coming 10 years which assures that there is climate change within the study area. From the findings, it is possible to conclude that temperature and rainfall were increasing from time to time and caused climate change in the study area.
Presenters
Tesfaye BayuLecturer and Researcher, Natural Resources Management, Debre Markos University Burie Campus, Ethiopia
Details
Presentation Type
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session
Theme
KEYWORDS
Keywords; Climate change, Rainfall trend, Temperature trend, Temperature prediction
