Abstract
All across our planet the critical connections between the oceans and top-of-atmosphere have been disrupted. The stability that we and all life on the planet relies upon is being lost. The total amount of the CO2 released in the Earth’s atmosphere exceeds natural emissions from lithospheric long-term storage by approximately two orders of magnitude due to the ongoing anthropogenic activity since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (~1780). Even the Paris Accord to degree 1.5oC limit was left behind in the rearview mirror. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates are very uncertain, and likely within 1.5-4.5oC according to the IPCC, 6th Assessment Report. In this work we assess the ECS range using the established Physics laws: Planck’s, Boltzmann’s, Kirchhoff’s radiation laws, and the expression for the adiabatic gradient in the Earth’s troposphere. An approach based on the system identification method based on the least square technique was used to construct a model of the climate system (IPCC data). Based on our analysis the risks associated with the runaway greenhouse effect remain on the following reasons: (i) Inability of human civilization to significantly reduce industrial CO2 emissions in ~ 20 years as suggested by Accord de Paris; (ii) High uncertainty of the ECS estimations. In summary, should promote: (i) Reduction the flow of solar radiation falling on the Earth; (ii) Fast growth broad-leaf tree plantations in Siberia, and Brazil in climate mitigation. This could open the way of dealing with increasing fire threats in the warming climate.
Details
Presentation Type
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session
Theme
2025 Special Focus—Sustainable Development for a Dynamic Planet: Lessons, Priorities, and Solutions
KEYWORDS
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity; Earth’s Energy Budget; Runaway Greenhouse Effect
