Abstract
Semi-arid agroecosystems are crucial for food security and ecosystem services, but land degradation threatens their sustainability. The objective of study to evaluate land degradation neutrality (as per Sustainable Development Goal 15, indicator 15.3.1). We employed the trends.earth tool in QGIS 3.3, utilising the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) classified land use land, land cover (LULC), soil organic carbon(SOC), and land productivity dynamics maps for 1992, 2000, 2010, and 2020 to assess land degradation. Additionally, we predicted 2050 LULC maps using the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS, which integrates an artificial neural network (ANN) in cellular automata (CA) modeling (CA-ANN) based on the 2015 LULC map and independent variables such as the digital elevation model (DEM) and slope. Land cover maps from 1992 to 2020 revealed a significant decrease in bare areas (-71%) and an increase in settlements (built-up areas) (+163%). Predictions for 2050 using CA-ANN models suggest further increases in bare land (+238%) and settlements (+72%), with declines in water bodies (-23%) and forests (-3.5%). In terms of land degradation, approximately 26.46% of the province exhibited degraded land, accounting for approximately 20,146.35 km2, while approximately 59.55% (45,337.84 km2) of the land remained stable. Land cover shifts, particularly from forests to grasslands and settlements, were identified as key drivers of degradation. These findings emphasize the urgency of addressing land degradation in semi-arid regions. By monitoring LULC dynamics and understanding their impact on SOC, targeted interventions can be developed to promote sustainable land use practices and achieve land degradation neutrality.
Details
Presentation Type
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session
Theme
Assessing Impacts in Diverse Ecosystems
KEYWORDS
Soil organic carbon semi-arid areas land productivity SDG15
